Anthony P's NHL Model May 15, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAY 15, 2023


Farewell, Edmonton! The last Canadian team in the playoffs has exited. Yesterday, I discussed the absurdity of the -200 line in my discord channel, and we're witnessing a similar scenario tonight in Dallas. Despite both series being evenly contested, with any team capable of emerging victorious on any given night, these lines continue to baffle. Could tonight be the night Jake Oettinger steals one for the Stars?

The Kraken's playoff run seemed to be sinking after two consecutive losses. Yet, against the odds, Seattle kept their hopes alive with a victory on Saturday, facing a do-or-die seventh game for the second series in a row. Seattle's inaugural playoff series was against the current Stanley Cup Champions, the Colorado Avalanche. In a stunning upset.

On Saturday, the Kraken kicked off the second period with two rapid goals, extending their lead to 4-1, courtesy of Eeli Tolvanen and Tye Kartye. Joe Pavelski narrowed the gap with his eighth goal of the playoffs, making it 4-2 entering the final period.

Despite Dallas' efforts in the third period, the Kraken, including a second goal by Eberle, sealed their victory. Jake Oettinger, starting goaltender for the Stars, was replaced by Scott Wedgewood after managing 14 saves out of 18 shots. Philipp Grubauer, the Kraken's goalie, performed admirably, blocking 20 out of 23 shots.

Each team had three power plays, with both teams scoring once. The Kraken had the upper hand in shots, 29 to 23, including a blistering first period where they fired 16 shots at the Dallas goal.

The pressure is now squarely on Dallas. While I anticipate a tightly contested game, I believe the Kraken, with their relaxed style and an underperforming Oettinger, have a decent chance of winning. If Dallas does pull off a win, I expect it to be a nail-biter.

The Stars have managed to avoid consecutive losses in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, primarily thanks to Oettinger's ability to rebound from subpar performances.

Both teams' offenses are rolling, and every game in the series has met or exceeded six goals. The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas, and 9-0 in the last nine meetings. The home team has triumphed in four of the last five encounters. My lean is on the over 6 goals

Good luck today!

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