Anthony P's NHL Model May 12, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAY 12, 2023


As the city of Toronto braces for the outcome of the Maple Leafs' next playoff game, a surprising prediction emerges from the recent statistical trends - a Leafs' victory, and a substantial one at that. This might appear counterintuitive, given the Leafs' recent struggles at home during the playoffs, but a closer look at the data suggests an impending turnaround.

The standout statistic from Game 4 wasn't a goal, an exceptional save, or even the bizarre ricochet off an official that contributed to Toronto's opening score. Instead, it was the Leafs impressive tally of 21 blocked shots, indicating a heightened level of defensive confidence that has been absent so far this postseason.

Though much attention was given to Joseph Woll's commendable 24 saves after replacing injured netminder Ilya Samsonov, the Leafs' vigorous defensive performance, particularly in the slot, can't be overlooked. Their aggressive play could have resulted in an even wider victory margin, had Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky not been on top form. The Leafs looked ALIVE!

Bobrovsky's stellar performance, featuring a remarkable save on a breakaway by Leafs captain John Tavares, kept the Panthers within striking distance throughout the game. However, the overall effort from the Leafs was superior, particularly in the trench warfare of the rink.

Adding to the optimistic outlook for Toronto is the fact that William Nylander and Matt Marner finally found the back of the net. Despite losing their last three home playoff games, including Game 5 against the Tampa Bay Lightning and the first two games of the current series, the Leafs' sole home playoff victory was a commanding 7-3 triumph over the Lightning in Game 2 of the opening series.

Signs are now pointing towards a breakout home effort from the Leafs, potentially even overdue.

While tonight's game between the Edmonton Oilers and the Vegas Golden Knights will be one to watch with bated breath, it's a game I'd personally recommend avoiding from a betting perspective. This is primarily due to the recent tumultuous game between the two teams that resulted in suspensions for Alex Pietrangelo of the Golden Knights and Darnell Nurse of the Oilers.

However, Edmonton's recent form cannot be overlooked. The Oilers have racked up victories in eight of their last ten road games, solidifying their status as -130 favorites for tonight's game. A whopping 90% of the betting handle is currently behind the Oilers, although, as of yet, there's no significant backing from sharp money.

Perhaps the most exciting aspect of the Oilers' recent performance has been the depth and diversity of their roster. In Wednesday's win, neither Connor McDavid nor Leon Draisaitl, two of the team's most prolific scorers, found the back of the net. This not only highlights the strength of Edmonton's supporting cast but also raises the tantalizing prospect of one of them being the first to score in tonight's game at odds of +800.

Despite the Oilers' impressive road form and the depth of their roster, the absence of key players and the volatile nature of recent encounters make this game a risky proposition for bettors. Nevertheless, it's a spectacle that promises plenty of excitement and intrigue for those who appreciate high-quality hockey.

Good luck today!

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