Anthony P's NHL Model May 11, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR May 11, 2023


Regrettably, our model is currently experiencing some technical difficulties. I'm working on resolving the issue and will provide a screenshot as soon as it's back up and running. In the interim, neither of tonight's games presents worthwhile betting value.

Initially, my strategy hinged on the Hurricanes' scoring struggles and the Devils' solid defense, which ranked 8th in goals allowed per game and 9th in expected goals against per 60 minutes. Contrary to expectations, however, the Hurricanes have been an offensive powerhouse in this series, averaging over 5 goals per game, while the Devils' defense has been disappointingly ineffective, further hampered by lackluster goaltending.

The Hurricanes secured a crucial victory on the Devils' home ice, and considering the prevailing home ice trends, this road win could potentially be the series-defining moment. The Devils face an uphill battle tonight, and I've reconciled myself with the losses and am prepared to move forward. The Devils' track record in Carolina doesn't inspire much confidence either, with just one win in their last seven meetings there, and three wins in the last eleven encounters.

The Devils goalies have save percentages below .900, and with a goals-for-per-60-minutes rate of 1.81 – the second lowest in the playoffs – you're more likely to find me post-game at the bar, nursing a bottle of Tito's.

Will the Stars ride the wave of their recent momentum, take a 3-2 lead, and seal the series? I remain skeptical. It would be misguided to put too much stock into their recent 6-3 victory. Had it not been for the Stars' offense stepping up, they would have been on the losing end of this game, given another subpar performance from Oettinger. Despite only facing 19 shots on goal, he conceded three.

So, yes, the offense shone, the defense held the Kraken to a mere 19 shots, and yet Oettinger still allowed three goals. What are the chances of the Stars' offense and defense turning in another flawless performance? The odds seem against it, considering how the series' momentum has been seesawing between both teams, much like the Oilers' series.

Neither team has managed to firmly grasp control of this series, with only one game concluding with a one-goal difference. Home ice has not been a significant factor either, with each team holding a 1-1 record at their respective arenas. These factors make it rather puzzling that the Stars are heavily favored. While a win on home ice is possible, the Kraken has every chance of pulling off a surprise road victory.

I anticipate a nail-bitingly close game, as both teams will likely adopt a more defensive strategy given the series' history of lopsided results. The trend of high-scoring games seems set to continue, with the over hitting in the last seven encounters. Furthermore, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Dallas, and the road team has come out on top in five of the last seven matchups.

Good luck today!

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