Anthony P's NHL Model March 9, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 9, 2023

I tried the delay this article in the hopes that some value would be opening up after the morning skates but it's not the case. We will still go over some details on this big slate.

We were expecting upsets last night but it didn't happen however it did get close. Detroit needed to rally in the 3rd to tie and finally win the game with 4 minutes left. The Blackhawks were a +205 dog. Many in discord were on the Ducks, a +225 dog and I supported the play also. The Canucks needed OT to prevail.

We covered the Wild and the under. The Wild won and can thank Fleury who stole the show-stopping 46 of the 48 shots the Jets took on him. An empty netter with just over 30 sec left pushed the total to go over 5.5 and it was a shitty way to lose the under 5.5.

The only value the model is showing is on the Sabres tonight and I covered the game already in the Overnight Grind article this morning. Adding to those notes, It's a tough spot for the Sabres playing a 3rd game in 4 days while the Stars are on a 2 day's rest. If you are looking for arguments to support the Sabres, Dallas is only 3-4-2-2 on 2 days' rest and has lost 7 straight against teams of the Eastern Conference.

The Avs are catching on fire at the right time and it looked like they could have scored 12 goals against San Jose 2 nights ago. Colorado will be playing a 4th game in 6 nights and the under is 11-3 in their last 14 games in the 4th game of a 4 in-6 spot. The Kings are hot winning 4 straight but 3 of those wins were against shitting teams (WAS, MTL, and STL). It should be a great game and we have just above 4% EV on the Kings.

The Bruins, gosh when is the last they played? March 4th!! When was the last time they lost a game?? Geez, February 11th! This should also be a great game and a rematch of February 27th when the Bruins won 3-2 in Edmonton. The road team is 5-0 in the last 5 games and we saw some money coming on Edmonton pushing the line down from +160 to +144. Is Boston too rested? They are 5-2 this season on 3+ days of rest.

Philadelphia and San Jose are playing on limited rest and we saw the line move against them. Kochetkov is set to start for Carolina. He hasn't started in an NHL game since January but he's been great when needed going 10-4-5 this season with a solid GAA of 2.33 and .913 SV%. The Canes moved from -360 to -380.

Looking for an underdog play tonight? Why not the Coyotes? Compare both lineups and this line shouldn't be at -160. My model agrees with the Preds line but I strongly believe it should be lower and in the -135 / -140 ranges. Nashville holds an edge on defense and in nets however with all these new lines in Nashville, it's hard to gather data in terms of xG% distribution.

Evangelista and Vrana will be your top values in DFS cash games and make sure you lock them in. The obvious G will be Kochetkov at 6.5k on DK as nearly a -400 favorite. Starting with those 3 in your line will give you enough room to make Mackinnon and Pasta your core plays. If you want to go with one or the other so you can fit some Rangers or Stars, I would lean on Pasta over Nate just because of the tougher matchup for Nate, and the Avs team total dropped by 0.3 goals. Nonetheless, Nate's floor is elite. If some reporters or sites are touting Boqvist the first line for New Jersey, don't buy it. Amanda Steen reported that he's on the second line as per the morning practice.

Good luck today!

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