Anthony P's NHL Model March 29, 2022

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 29, 2023

This evening's modest three-game schedule presents an interesting scenario, particularly with regard to the projected goal total in the Toronto game. Surprisingly, the model predicts only 6.7 goals for the matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers.

The Panthers' goaltending has been lackluster in the latter part of the season, allowing over four goals against per game (GA/G) in their last seven outings. With four consecutive losses and 21 goals conceded in those defeats, the Panthers' performance has been notably disappointing. It is worth mentioning that four of their last six games had a posted total of 7, indicating that a high-scoring game against the league's seventh-best offense is anticipated.

Recent trends for the Maple Leafs are also telling: they have seen the over-hit in 7 of their last 10 games and have a 7-2-1 record in their last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents.

Another factor to consider is the Leafs' return home after a road trip lasting more than seven days. In their first home game following such trips, the over has hit in all four instances. Fatigue and the effects of travel may play a role in the potential for high-scoring outcomes.

The Florida Panthers have faced a series of setbacks recently, losing four consecutive games, including a 6-2 defeat to the Maple Leafs at home last week. As a result, they now occupy ninth place in the Eastern Conference, trailing the Pittsburgh Penguins by three points for the final wild-card position. Although the Panthers could potentially achieve a winning record in the remaining games, their playoff prospects appear bleak, given that they will face top-tier opponents such as Carolina and Toronto in three of their final eight games.

I have no lean on this game.

In tonight's matchup between the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild, a playoff-style intensity is expected to take center stage, with both teams boasting impressive defensive records. As a result, many anticipate a low-scoring affair, with the total score projected to fall under 6 goals. The sharps are on the under 6 juiced as high as -125 with some books already dropping it to 5.5 however some sharp books have yet to drop the total.

This season, both the Avalanche and the Wild have exhibited a penchant for low-scoring games, with the under hitting 42-28-3 in Colorado's matches and 39-30-5 in Minnesota's. Both teams rank among the best defensive units in the NHL, with the Wild allowing the third-fewest goals and the Avalanche ranking sixth in that category.

Offensively, neither team has been exceptional. The Wild rank tenth from the bottom in goals scored and the Avalanche fourteenth. This further supports the notion that tonight's clash will be a tightly contested, low-scoring battle.

Additional trends favoring the under include:

• The under is 6-1-1 in the Wild's last eight games when their opponent scored 5 or more goals in their previous match.

• When fatigue may be a factor, the Avalanche have shown a strong defensive performance, with the under going 3-0-1 in their last four games in a 4-in-6 days situation.

• In matchups against Central Division opponents, the under has hit 13-3-2 in the Avalanche's last 18 games.

• The Wild have struggled in Colorado, losing their last four meetings there.

• The under has hit 4-1-1 in the last six head-to-head matchups between the two teams.

The data and trends suggest that a fierce defensive battle is on the horizon, making the under 6 goals a compelling choice.

Good luck today!

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