Anthony P's NHL Model March 28, 2022

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 28, 2023

Despite the Kraken seemingly having the sharp advantage, the Wild emerged victorious in yesterday's matchup, even without their star player. I must admit that I regret not placing a bet on the game after writing about it yesterday. Now, let's turn our attention to upcoming games and potential value bets, including the Red Wings and the Golden Knights.

The betting model indicates that there may be value in wagering on the Red Wings, although I remain uncertain about this pick. Additionally, the early edition of the sharp report from last night listed the Vegas Golden Knights at +103. Interestingly, the line has begun moving in the opposite direction, which is unusual considering the Oilers played last night and are facing a back-to-back road game situation.

I will provide updates to this article following the morning skates, offering further insights and betting tips for those interested in wagering on today's NHL matchups.

UPDATE:

With a substantial 10-game NHL slate on the horizon, the mix of well-rested and fatigued teams offers an intriguing landscape for sports bettors. In this article, we'll examine the impact of tight scheduling on team performance and potential betting opportunities, focusing on the Los Angeles Kings and the Edmonton Oilers.

Tonight's slate features several teams playing their third game in four nights, including Nashville, Boston, Vancouver, St. Louis, Carolina, Chicago, and Los Angeles. Montreal and Edmonton face back-to-back road games, while Tampa, Dallas, Calgary, Columbus, NY Rangers, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Winnipeg, San Jose, Philly, and Vegas enjoy two days of rest.

Initially, the Kings seemed like a promising pick, boasting an impressive offense that has scored over 4 goals per game in the last 27 days and no regulation losses in their last 11 games. However, playing their third game in four nights and sharp money on the Flames early this morning has raised doubts. Additionally, the Kings are a popular square play tonight, further complicating the betting decision.

The Oilers played last night, and many expected the line to shift in Vegas's favor. However, that hasn't materialized. The road team has a 6-2 record in the last eight meetings between these teams, and Vegas recently won in Edmonton on March 25th. The Oilers' record is 4-4 with no rest this season, but only 2-4 after a win. Facing the Golden Knights, who have won four straight and eight of their last nine games, won't make things any easier for the Oilers. With both teams' offenses performing well, expect goals tonight. The total is set at 7, but there is no value at the current number.

Good luck today!

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