Anthony P's NHL Model March 25, 2022

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 25, 2023

We nicely brokedown the under in Colorado yesterday and it was never close! Great call from the model.

I will try my best to get some notes out early afternoon!

In the meantime, here is yesterday's article!

Yesterday's game in Boston concluded with the model's prediction of staying under, proving its accuracy once again. Fatigue played a significant role for several teams, leading to games like the Wild and Canucks going over the total, as anticipated based on favorable trends.

Tonight, there are only three games on the schedule. The odds for the Islanders shifted from -185 to -241 following the confirmation of Hutchinson's in nets for Columbus. Meanwhile, the total for the game in Buffalo is expected to move to 7 across all markets shortly, with Pinnacle, 5dime, and DK having already made the adjustment. BOL, however, remains at 6.5o -138.

Despite news of Makar's likely return, the odds for the Avalanche have dropped from an astonishing -492 to -424. The model indicates a 27% expected value (EV) for the Coyotes, suggesting that the line is highly inflated, although an Avalanche loss is not widely anticipated. Arizona has displayed solid performance in their last 10 games, with a 6-4 record. They narrowly lost to the Edmonton Oilers in overtime two days ago and lost a close one 2-1 to the Winnipeg Jets. The Coyotes managed to secure victories against Chicago, Vancouver, Calgary, and Minnesota. On March 11th, they lost in overtime to Colorado, but not before beating Nashville and St. Louis in previous games.

As the Arizona Coyotes prepare to face the Colorado Avalanche, recent trends indicate that this Western Conference matchup is likely to be a low-scoring affair, with both teams showcasing strong defensive performances.

The under has been a prominent trend for the Coyotes, with records of 2-0-2 in their last four overall games, last four against the Western Conference, and last four road games. Additionally, the Coyotes have had success in games with little rest, boasting a 5-1 record in their last six games playing on just one day's rest. However, the team has struggled on the road, with a 12-40 record in their last 52 road games.

Similar to the Coyotes, the Avalanche have seen the under hit in many of their recent games. In their last four Friday games, the under has a 3-0-1 record, and it is 12-2-2 in their last 16 games against Central Division opponents. Following a home loss of three or more goals, the under has a 5-1 record for the Avalanche. Like the Coyotes, the Avalanche have thrived on short rest, posting a 5-1 record in their last six games playing on one day's rest. The under has also been prevalent in games where the Avalanche scored two goals or less in their previous game, with an 11-3-1 record.

The NHL better model is showing close to 10% EV on the under!

When it comes to the head-to-head meetings between these two teams, the under has continued to be a dominant trend, with a 4-1 record in the last five meetings and a 19-9 record in the last 28 meetings in Colorado. The Coyotes have struggled in Colorado, with a 2-11 record in their last 13 meetings there, while the home team has had the upper hand in the last nine meetings, with a 7-2 record.

Taking all these trends into account, bettors should anticipate a defensive showdown in this matchup between the Arizona Coyotes and the Colorado Avalanche. With the under-hitting consistently for both teams and in their recent head-to-head meetings, it's safe to say that a low-scoring game is on the horizon but I wouldn't discount the Coyotes and I wouldn't surprise at all if they win!

Good luck today!

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