Anthony P's NHL Model March 23, 2022

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 23, 2023

In the unpredictable world of sports betting, last night's NHL game between the Penguins and the Avalanche proved that upsets can happen when we least expect them. As we move forward with a packed schedule, it's crucial to consider how fatigue may affect various teams and identify betting trends that could offer value.

Tonight's NHL slate is massive, and DFS enthusiasts will have their hands full. A significant number of teams may be impacted by fatigue, which is something bettors should take into account. Minnesota, Boston, Tampa, NYR, Nashville, Winnipeg, and Vancouver are all set to play their fourth game in six nights.

Meanwhile, Ottawa, Florida, Detroit, and Calgary are playing their third game in four nights, with Pittsburgh being the only team facing back-to-back games with no rest in between.

Upon examining the stats and considering the rest situation, several trends stand out:

• Minnesota has gone 11-1 on the Under in their last 12 games when playing in this fatigued spot.

• Nashville has gone 6-1 on the Over in their last seven games when playing in this spot.

• Vancouver has gone 4-1-1 on the Over in their last six games when playing in this spot.

The betting model favors the Hurricanes in their upcoming game, and it's easy to see why. Not much has changed in the analysis from earlier this week, except for the fact that the Rangers tend to participate in high-scoring games when playing home-and-home series. Although it's hard to envision this occurring in Carolina, the total initially dropped from 6 to 5.5, prompting some to believe they had made the right call. However, as betting limits increased this morning, the total climbed back up to 6, with sharp money backing the Over. As a result, this game will be removed from the sharp report due to interest on both sides.

With the model projecting a total of 5.81 for this game, there's not much value to be found in betting the Under.

The betting model favors the Under in the upcoming Boston vs. Montreal matchup, but bettors should be cautious before placing their wagers. Montreal's recent performance raises concerns about the reliability of betting on the Under in this game.

The Canadiens have struggled defensively in their last 10 games, allowing nearly 5 goals per game on average. Despite a relatively unknown roster, their offense has been firing on all cylinders. They've managed to score 3 goals in back-to-back games against Tampa Bay, 5 against Florida, 6 against Pittsburgh, and 4 against Colorado.

While Montreal faces a challenging matchup against the league's top defense in Boston, the Bruins' potent offensive capabilities pose a significant risk for those betting on the Under. With the potential to score 5 or more goals, the Bruins add an element of unpredictability if betting the under. This game can easily also finish 6-0.

While the betting model may favor the Under in the Boston vs. Montreal game, bettors should be aware of the risks involved. Montreal's recent offensive surge and Boston's high-scoring potential make it difficult to confidently bet on the Under in this matchup.

Good luck today!

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