Anthony P's NHL Model March 22, 2022

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 22, 2023

The Predators managed to score 7 goals against the Sabres yesterday even without Josi, signaling a new low for Buffalo. We discussed this game in yesterday's article, acknowledging the potential value in backing the Preds despite Josi's absence.

Last night in the NHL, the underdogs had a field day, going 9-4 and causing several significant upsets (the Canadiens, for instance). Today, we have a small two-game slate, and without focusing on daily fantasy sports, I won't delve too deeply into the matchups. However, the model indicates that the Oilers' line is overpriced, while the 10-point drop for the Avalanche now puts their line at a more appropriate level with the model.

This matchup is crucial for the Penguins as the Panthers recently leapfrogged them for a wild-card spot in the playoffs. The Pens now face a red-hot Avalanche team that has won their last five games, averaging five goals scored per game and conceding a mere two goals per game. Colorado's power play has been scorching, netting seven goals in their last 15 attempts (a 47% success rate).

On the other hand, the Penguins' offense has dried up recently, scoring just two goals per game in their last five outings while allowing four goals per game. Contrarian bettors may find value in backing the Penguins in this situation. It's the type of game where everyone will be keen on the Avalanche (and rightly so), but the Penguins could pull off a surprise win. That being said, it's not a guarantee that we'll be placing our bets on the Pens, but it's essential to remember that they're still a great team with top-tier talent. Ultimately, the outcome may hinge on Jarry's performance. He has been struggling in the last three games, with a 4.39 GAA and a .851 SV% and I don't trust him against this hot Avs team.

Good luck today!

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