Anthony P's NHL Model March 21, 2022

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 21, 2023

Yesterday, we experienced a nail-biting third period with our Panthersbet in regulation, but it seemed like the hockey gods were just toying with us. According to the NHL model, the Predators and the under in Winnipeg are showing + EV.

Buffalo was expected to make a playoff push in the second half of the season, but instead, they went on a 2-8 run, allowing nearly 5 goals per game (GA/G) and scoring 2.50 goals per game (GF/G). Despite being sellers at the trade deadline, Nashville has been performing better than Buffalo, largely thanks to Saros. However, Nashville's offense has struggled without Forsberg, averaging only 2 GF/G in their last 10 games.

The Predators' value primarily stems from the line moving in Buffalo's favor, and the sharps at the book are backing the Sabres, setting up another showdown between the sharps and the model. On paper, Buffalo should easily defeat Nashville, but the Predators currently have an advantage in goaltending, defense, and their penalty kill can neutralize the Sabres' power play.

It's worth mentioning that the Predators have enjoyed significant success in Buffalo, winning 8 of their last 10 games there, and the road team has a 15-6 record in the last 21 meetings. In a rare coincidence, both teams are coming off 7-0 losses in their previous games, so it will be interesting to see how they respond.

Good luck today!

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