Anthony P's NHL Model March 17, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 17, 2023

CORRECTION: Korpi was traded and that was a brain fart on my part. Hutchinson is expected and he's been terrible.

Yesterday, I argued against placing bets on the Blackhawks, which didn't turn out well. With 10 goals in the first period in Florida, everything has become unpredictable but the sharps were on the over 6.5 goals. The favorites led the way once again going 8-3 while the unders went 7-4.

On Friday's small slate, three out of four games are predicted to be unexciting, except for the Canes vs. Leafs game. Toronto's performance against the Avs was disappointing, and they'll likely struggle to get pucks on the net versus the Canes. Carolina recently recovered against the Wild after that brutal loss in Jersey, but they've encountered issues on the road, losing in Vegas, requiring OT to defeat Montreal, and being shut out in Jersey.

Buffalo finds themselves in a crucial position against Philly, needing a win to maintain their playoff chances. However, the line is moving in the opposite direction, and following their loss in Washington, only the most optimistic bettors (squares) are backing the Sabres.

The most intriguing betting opportunity may be in Anaheim, where two of the league's weakest teams face off. The Blue Jackets have a 3-8-3 record on road back-to-backs, while the Ducks have 17 of their 22 wins on one day's rest and have played over .500 in that situation. Although the Blue Jackets might have an edge in goaltending with Korpi, they have a poor record on the west coast, losing five of their last seven games in Anaheim. Since 2018, the Ducks have won seven of the last eight encounters.

The Ducks' offense should benefit from Columbus' recent defensive woes, which have allowed nearly 5 goals per game in their last five games. Fatigue is likely to be the deciding factor, as Columbus plays their fourth game in six nights, with three of those games on the road starting in Ottawa and ending in Anaheim.

Finally, the Ducks have been successful against teams with a sub-.400 winning record, winning all six of their latest games against such opponents. This should continue Friday night against the Blue Jackets.

Good luck today!

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