Anthony P's NHL Model March 16, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 16, 2023

No big surprises yesterday as the favorites went 3-1 and the only underdog that won was Colorado and they can beat anyone anytime. I questioned the line movement in the Blues game and after taking a 3-1 lead they got destroyed 8-4. The overs continued to smash and went 3-1.

The model liked the under in Toronto yesterday and that cashed. Many were heavy on the Sabres and I agreed. Ove was a GTD and finally played. The Caps rallied and won in SO.

No props yesterday but I am about to finish my SOG model and hopefully should be ready for April. I am also working with the folks on the DFS side to get NHL DFS ownership projections back up on the site so we are excited about that.

We have a huge slate and the sharp report is pretty busy with some sharp action. The model is tight and there is not much value. The Hawks have a +10.73% EV and they play against the Preds therefore it's worth looking into it. Also, the over 6.5 is attractive between the Coyotes and Canucks since they have bottom-tier defenses.

Let's take a look at both games.

The Nashville Predators are on a three-game winning streak and are set to face the Chicago Blackhawks, who are also coming off a significant and lucky win against the Bruins. Despite their recent success, the Blackhawks are expected to have a letdown, and the Predators are considered the more reliable team. Chicago has had a subpar season and traded away several notable players, including Patrick Kane and Max Domi, to focus on building for the future. This decision aligns with their poor performance on both offense and defense this season.

The Predators have been dominant in their recent head-to-head matchups against the Blackhawks, winning 23 of their last 30 meetings, including 16 of their past 21 games played in Nashville.

On Paper the Preds don't look as good as a -250 favorite however we did undervalue Saros and Josi after the trade deadline and this team did look good against Detroit, Anaheim and LA. The Preds have a big edge in nets with Saros who has a GAA is 2.29 in his last 7 games and an SV% of .929. Defensively, the Preds also have a big edge however McDonagh might miss tonight's game.

Lastly, with 2.19 GF/G on the road this year, the Blackhawks have a limited offense and it will take more than that to take advantage of what seems some regression coming for the Predsd who are 5th xGF/60.

I will pass on the value BUT if Saros doesn't play then it is to be considered for a 1/2 unit play.

The Vancouver Canucks and Arizona Coyotes will face off in an NHL Western Conference match at Mullett Arena in Arizona. The Canucks have won five consecutive games, but this game will be their first away from home during this streak. The Canucks have played some of their best hockey lately with Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, and JT Miller having all been productive recently, and goaltender Thatcher Demko has been stellar in net. The team has a good offense but has struggled defensively, allowing the 2nd most goals in the NHL this season.

The Coyotes have won four of their last five games and have won five of their last seven games at home. In their only previous meeting this season, the Canucks won 3-2. Neither team is headed to the playoffs, but both will play for pride since apparently, NHL teams don't "tank"

The Coyotes have struggled offensively, scoring the 4th fewest goals in the league, but they have been playing well defensively as of late but still own the 7th worst defense. Clayton Keller has been in excellent form recently, scoring 13 points in the month, including four goals in his last two games. Karel Vejmelka has been playing well in goal for the Coyotes, but they have struggled on the penalty kill, killing off only 75.6% of their penalties.

The game is expected to be high-scoring, as both teams have struggled defensively this season. Both teams have also trended over this season, with the over in Canucks games going 41-22-3 and in Coyotes games going 34-32-2 this year but it's important to note that in Arizona's old arena, under the total dominated 13-3-2 and we've seen some really boring games from these two teams.

Good luck today!

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