Anthony P's NHL Model March 15, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 15, 2023

We went 1-2 with the proposed props yesterday. It was a 6-6 split between favorites and dogs. We have 2 +300 and over hits with the Blackhawks and the Canadiens and the Coyotes +215 beat the Flames in overtime. The scoring was ridiculous last night and my cash game lineup on DK scored 173.60 pts. Unreal! The overs went 10-2!!

We have a 4 game slate tonight and I already covered the Leafs / Avs game in the Overnight Grind.

I will update this article after the morning skates since there are many missing pieces. Is Ove playing and will Lindgren be confirmed? Will Luke Schenn play? They will need him against the Avs. The Wild's line dropped 20pts this morning and they are on a 3-day rest. What are we missing apart from being totally dominated by the Blues last 22 games?

UPDATE:

The Buffalo Sabres are set to take on the Washington Capitals tonight, but the big question on everyone's mind is the status of Capitals star player Alex Ovechkin. As of now, there is still no news about Ovechkin's condition, and he remains questionable for tonight's game.

The Capitals have struggled this season when playing without rest, with a 1-6-1 record in those games. On the other hand, the Sabres have the fourth-best power play in the league, while the Capitals have the seventh-best power play kill.

Washington's power play has been lackluster recently, with only two goals in their last 18 attempts. However, their offense has been on fire, averaging four goals per game in their last five games. The Sabres' defense has been a problem for them, allowing four goals per game in their last six games.

The line for this game has been moving in Buffalo's favor since opening yesterday, and the oddsmakers are expecting Ovechkin to miss another game. The Sabres are coming off an unexpected win against Toronto two days ago and will be facing a backup goalie who has done well, but a tired defense decimated with injuries. Fatigue may be an issue for the Capitals, and the Sabres' speed could be too much for Washington to handle.

In conclusion, while Ovechkin's absence would be a significant blow to the Capitals, they still have a potent offense that could cause problems for the Sabres' struggling defense. However, with Buffalo's impressive power play and Washington's tired legs, the Sabres could come out on top in this game.

The Blues have historically owned the Wild, winning 17 of the last 22 meetings and 9 of the last 11, but the line for tonight's game has moved toward St. Louis, leaving some fans scratching their heads based on the matchup on paper.

The two teams are 1-1 against each other this season, exchanging victories on the road. On New Year's Eve, the Wild were -130 favorites in St. Louis with Kirill Kaprizov in the lineup, but he won't be playing tonight. Additionally, Jonas Brodin and Marcus Foligno will also miss tonight's game, which could explain some of the smart money going on the Blues.

Despite dropping a game to the Arizona Coyotes three days ago, the Wild have been playing well, with their last three losses coming in overtime or shootouts. The Wild have the second-best expected goals against per 60 minutes in the league, while the Blues are 26th in expected goals per 60 minutes, indicating that we shouldn't expect much scoring from St. Louis.

The Blues will have to face a hot goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury, who has won his last five games with a GAA of 1.38 and a SV% of .957. These stats make Fleury one of the best goaltenders in the league during that stretch leaving once again some fans puzzled as to why the line has moved toward St. Louis.

While the Blues have historically had the upper hand against the Wild, the line moving toward St. Louis despite their recent struggles has left me and some fans perplexed. Nonetheless, with the Wild missing some key players and the Blues struggling to score, the books are expecting a closer-than-anticipated game.

My leans are Toronto and Minnesota!


Good luck today!

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