Anthony P's NHL Model March 14, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR MAR 14, 2023

My 9-year-old is excited to go watch her first Habs game and she asked me if she could stay up a little later and watch the first period of the Avs and Habs. I really pumped her when I was talking about Nate, Rantanen, and Makar. She asked why I wasn't so passionate about the Habs and I told her because suck. It was 4-1 after the first period and she said she was not too sure if she wants to go watch the game anymore.

We have a big ass slate with no freaking value. The model is showing us that the Bruins and Flames are overpriced but by all means, it doesn't mean there is value on Chicago and Arizona.

Instead of covering the games I will cover a couple of props that I like tonight. In my discord channel yesterday we went over Nylander anytime scorer, Lehkonen over 0.5 pts, Toews over 0.5 pts at +120, and Nate over 1.5 pts at + money.

Draisalitl over 2.5 SOG is priced at -150 but we have value based on his SOG when facing the Sens. He's averaging 4.2 SOG in his last 10 games vs the Sens. The same goes with McDavid however he's priced at 4.5o +120.

Kucherov loves to play the Devils and averages close to 2 pts per game in his last 10 meetings against the Devils. This correlates with his SOG which averages 4.4 per game vs the Devils. His SOG prop is at 3.5 +110 and we have some value on the over.

The last prop is Granlund over 0.5 pts -110. He's facing the Habs on a b2b and they give up 3.60 GA/G on the road. Granlund averages close to 1.5 assists per game vs Montreal in his last 10 games and registered a pts in 8 of his last 10 games when playing Montreal.

My leans tonight are the Caps to upset the Rangers. The Devils are accumulating lots of square interest therefore Tampa could be a nice contrarian play at +120.

Good luck today!

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