Anthony P's NHL Model January 26, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 26, 2023

Yesterday the model liked the Islanders and I was torn between both teams. The Islanders ended up getting a lot of square action near puck drop and I decided to stay away from the game.

The model likes the Habs tonight. I will be back before 2 pm with some notes for tonight's games.

UPDATE:

The Habs are still the only value play for tonight. I just shared in my discord channel that the Habs will be playing with their reserve retro jersey and they have yet to win a game with that jersey and going for an 8th straight loss. Now, that has no effect on how I handicap a game however I thought I'd still share the info. It's comical that ppl will be betting on Detroit just because of that.

The Habs lost Caufield for the season on January 20 and that was a huge blow losing their best scorer when you are 30th in scoring this season averaging only 2.56 GF/G. Their first game without him was against the Leafs and they were a +305 underdog on home ice. Of course, the Habs won in OT 3-2. I bet the under 73.5 total points for the season and when I see the Habs win these kinds of games it drives me crazy.

The model has this game priced at -122 for the Wings. Market maker BetOnline opened this line at -153 and the consensus line is currently at -164. The more I look at this game and the more I'm thinking that this game should be priced at -105. Then I saw that Jake Allen is confirmed and he hasn't played since Jan 7th. Montembeault picked up the slack while Allen was injured and he posted a 2.63 GAA and an amazing SV% of .930 in 8 games. Allen is having a rough year with a GAA of 3.52 and an SV% of under .900. Since the start of the new year both teams played 11 games and their performances and metrics are very similar.

Record:

Montreal 5-6 last 11
Detroit 4-6-1 last 11

GD/GP (goal differential)

Montreal -0.90
Detroit -0.64

Power play and PK

Montreal 12% and 75%
Detroit 19% 68%

The only big edge for the Red Wings is on faceoffs with a +40 differential versus -22 for the Habs.

The Wings are the 3rd worst team in xGF/60, while the Habs have been better but we don't have enough of a sample size without Caufield. The biggest liability for the Habs is their xGA/60. They are 3rd worst for the season however they have maintained within the league average in their last 10 games thanks to Montembeault.

Lastly, both teams are terrible in puck possession with a CF% of 46% but that is expected from the Habs who are terrible at faceoffs but the Wings should be better. The home team is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings and the Wings are 3-12 in the last 15 meetings in Montreal. Montreal is missing 8 starters but Caufield is the one with the most impact. The Wings are getting Bertuzzi back but he's been irrelevant this year.

Since I am not confident in Allen's abilities this season and he hasn't played in 3 weeks, I'll most probably stay away from this one.

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