Anthony P's NHL Model January 25, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 25, 2023

We only have 4 games tonight and Pens backers can take the nights off after last night's crazy game.

The model is showing little value on Islanders and the line is now moving towards the Sens therefore we might have more value open up this afternoon.

I will be back before 2 pm with more notes and betting opportunities for tonight's games.

UPDATE:

As mentioned this morning, the line did continue to move on the Sens and the value on the Islanders is now close to 6%. It's enough to get my attention especially since the early money was on the Islanders. The Islanders have been one of the worst teams as of late and have only won 1 game in their last 10. The Sens have been a little better but still, have a losing record going 4-6 last 10 games. The Islanders strength has been their defense in the last 3 seasons however thru this stretch they've averaged 3.43 GA/G with a goal differential of -1.417 per game. The line movement on the Sens is because Varlamov has been confirmed. He hasn't been bad however he's no Sorokin. The Sens can be rusty tonight, they've been off for 3 days and they are 1-2 in that spot.

I'm not crazy about this game but if there is a game the Islanders can win, it's this one. Except for their game vs Montreal, the other 9 games were against opponents playing over .500 hockey. Also, NYI has owned the Sens winning 10 of their last 11 meetings and they feel at home in Ottawa winning 6 of their last 7 games.

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