Anthony P's NHL Model Game 5 Stanley Cup Finals

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I will post my MLB. NFL and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NHL BETTING MODEL FOR JUNE 13, 2023

The 2023 Stanley Cup Finals are heating up as the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers are set to face off in Game 5 on Tuesday, June 13, 2023. The Golden Knights, who are hosting the game at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, hold a commanding 3-1 lead in the series, and could clinch their first-ever Stanley Cup championship with a victory in this game​​.

Throughout the series, the Golden Knights have proven their prowess, winning the first two games with scores of 5-2 and 7-2, respectively. The Panthers, however, showed their resilience in Game 3, securing a 2-1 victory before losing a close Game 4 by a score of 3-2​.

The head-to-head record between the two teams during the regular season was evenly split at 1-1​​, but the Golden Knights have shown a certain dominance in this series thus far. Notably, Game 4 marked the first time in the series that the away team emerged victorious, which could indicate a shift in momentum for the Knights going into Game 5 on their home ice​.

In terms of player performance, William Karlsson and Chandler Stephenson have been key contributors for Vegas, with Karlsson scoring the game-winning goal and Stephenson netting two goals in Game 4​​. For the Panthers, their top player Matthew Tkachuk, who has 11 goals and 24 points this postseason, is dealing with an upper-body injury and his status for Game 5 remains uncertain. However, coach Paul Maurice indicated there is a chance Tkachuk could play in a limited role​​. His presence could be vital for the Panthers, as they are trying to become just the second NHL team ever to rally from a 3-1 deficit in a Stanley Cup Final​. The Tkachuk news was felt in the betting markets and the line moved from -145 to -170. 88% of the handle supports the Golen Knights followed by 80% of the tickets.

The betting trends from previous meetings between the two teams provide intriguing insights. These trends suggest a clear advantage for the Vegas Golden Knights going into the next game.

One of the most compelling statistics is that the favorite team has won in each of the last five meetings between these two teams. Given the Golden Knights' current 3-1 lead in the series and the fact that they've won three out of four games in the Stanley Cup Finals, it's reasonable to expect them to be the favorites going into Game 5. This trend appears to give the Golden Knights a significant edge.

In terms of location, the Golden Knights' home arena seems to offer them a strong home advantage. The Panthers have lost all seven of their last meetings in Vegas, a trend that the Golden Knights will be looking to continue. Furthermore, the home team has won 12 out of the last 14 meetings, adding more weight to the potential impact of the home-ice advantage in Game 5.

The Panthers, on the other hand, have only won three out of their last 11 meetings with the Golden Knights. This record, combined with their struggles in Vegas, paints a challenging picture for the Panthers as they face a potential series-deciding game in the Stanley Cup Finals.

As for the total goals scored in the games, the trend indicates high-scoring matchups when these two teams face off in Vegas. The total has gone 'Over' in six of the last seven meetings in Vegas, suggesting that bettors might want to consider the potential for a high-scoring game in Game 5. Given the high stakes and the pressure of a potential Stanley Cup victory for the Golden Knights, it wouldn't be surprising to see both teams pushing their offensive limits.

However, it's important to remember that while these trends provide valuable context, they are not guarantees of future results. The unpredictability of sports, particularly in high-stakes situations like a Stanley Cup Final, means that anything can happen once the puck drops. Additionally, specific circumstances, like the potential absence of Panthers' top player Matthew Tkachuk due to an injury, add another layer of complexity to the situation.

Given the current state of the series and the uncertainty around Tkachuk's status for Game 5, the Golden Knights appear to have the upper hand going into this game. They've demonstrated their ability to score, with multiple-goal wins in Games 1 and 2, and they now have the opportunity to win the championship on home ice, where they've historically performed well. Nevertheless, the Panthers showed their grit in a close Game 4 and could potentially force a Game 6 if they can replicate their Game 3 performance. However, without Tkachuk at full strength, their task will be significantly more challenging.

Best Prop:

Stone over 2.5 SOG +100 (good up to -110)

Good luck today!

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