Week 1 Main Slate Prop Bets with Adam Strangis

We had a strong start to the season with a 4-2 Thursday night football for about 1.5 units gained, and that is just the beginning. We're rolling into the main portion of the NFL week and we have a bunch to get to so let's dig right in! 

Note - All odds are taken from the DK Sports Book

Damien Harris (Patriots) Over 14.5 Rush Attempts, +100 

One of the biggest deciding factors for me personally on props is the projected game script. You have to be pretty close on that to nail your props, and one of the reasons we had some nice success Thursday was we played a pass-happy script. This game has the lowest O/U on the "main" slate for Sunday. Vegas projects a game that is tight to the vest and has two good defenses. With the Patriots nursing rookie quarterback Mac Jones through his first start, I would expect a heavy dose of Harris. Sony Michel is in LA and Cam Newton is a free agent and those two players combined for 216 rush attempts last season. Harris was averaging 13.7 carries a game in 2020 and that should increase this year. Even if Rhamondre Sevenson is active, Harris should approach 20 carries as this game shouldn't get out of hand either way. 

Kyle Pitts (Falcons) Over 3.5 Receptions at -120 and Devonta Smith (Eagles) Over 3.5 Receptions at +105 

The rookies are set to play a big role in this game as both were top 10 picks in the draft and both have heavy expectations on them in their passing offenses. The O/U has climbed to 49 points and may cross 50 by the time kickoff gets here. We didn't see a ton of these players in the preseason, but make no mistake - they are key cogs. For Pitts, the Falcons passed up on quarterback at the 1.04 and he is just a nightmare to line up against. Most rookie tight ends don't contribute a lot offensively as they learn the nuances of the position. That's not going to be the case with Pitts because they didn't take him so high to block. Julio Jones is in Tennessee and carried a 20% target share and a 25% air yards share. Pitts is going to try and replace that and the Philly linebackers and safeties are going to have an issue covering him, as will most defenses. 

As for Smith, Philly desperately needs an alpha in their passing game and they are banking on Smith being that dude. The Heisman winner is an underdog for just four receptions and even in a new offense... I just don't get that. I believe coach Nick Sirianni and OC Shane Steichen will scheme at least 2-3 receptions just on bubble screens or quick hitters to let Smith turn on the jets with his 4.3 40-yard dash speed. We would only need 1-2 catches past that and against this Atlanta secondary, I don't believe that to be much of a challenge. 

Odell Beckham Jr. (Browns) Over 4.5 Receptions, +125 

I had this play in the Discord and DK has (frustratingly) moved it to 3.5 at -145, so I hope everyone got it. It's a smash play now even at a much lesser return for two main reasons. The Browns are underdogs by five points and they should trail enough to throw the ball a little more than 31.8 times per game like they did last year. Beckham only played six full games last year but had a 21.9% target share and his reports from camp have been excellent. He's cutting at full speed and appears to be fully recovered from his ACL tear. This is still a player that has all the talent to be an elite receiver in the NFL and we're talking four receptions in a projected passing script. 

Jerry Jeudy (Broncos) Over 4.5 Receptions, +120 

The second-year receiver out of Alabama had a very trying rookie season. He wound up at 3.3 receptions per game and it might seem like this is a silly bet, seeing as he needs five receptions. However, a deeper look tells us that Jeudy was beyond sabotaged by his quarterback play last season. Of the 113 times he was targeted, only 71 were deemed catchable. That was good for 62.8%, ranked 106th in the NFL. One hundred and five other players had a higher catchable target rate. 1. 0. 5. This kid is far more talented than that and his new quarterback is Teddy Bridgewater. Maybe that doesn't sound exciting but Teddy B was eighth in catchable pass rate, sixth in clean completion rate, and fourth in true completion rate. Jeudy is going to see much higher quality targets this year. 

D.K. Metcalf (Seahawks) Over 73.5 Receiving Yards, -115 

Let's start by saying this is almost 10 yards under his average yards per game in 2020. That's not always going to be the best measure but he has Russell Wilson as his quarterback so that factor hasn't changed. Now let's add in the fact the Indy corners are giving a ton of size and if he gets to face Rock Ya-Sin and his 4.6 40-yard dash....it's game over for Ya-Sin. Metcalf is just a freakish athlete and finished sixth in receiving yards last year. The scary part is he was also sixth in unrealized air yards and that could really put him over the top this season. The yards are just too low for Metcalf and his 92.3% snap rate from 2020. 

Alvin Kamara (Saints) Over 5.5 Receptions, +120 

We all know that Jameis Winston doesn't have a reputation for being careful with the ball. I mean, you don't throw 30 interceptions in a season and check the ball down a whole lot but Winston has been in the New Orleans system for a year and then some now. Coach Sean Payton would not have named him starter if he didn't think he could run the offense. Tat offense when receiver Michael Thomas was out was the Alvin Kamara Show. When MT was out in 2020 (he's starting the season on the PUP list), Kamara averaged a target share of almost 25%, was targeted an average of 9.7 times, and averaged over eight receptions a game. This is a big number for the quarterback change, but Payton knows his best chance to move the ball is to feed Kamara as much as possible. I expect close to 10 targets here and they'll attempt to pick on the Green Bay linebackers. It shouldn't be an underdog. 

Pat Freiermuth (Steelers) Anytime Touchdown, +450 

Lastly, I always want to take a shot at a touchdown scorer to really boost our week. This week, it's the rookie out of Penn State and there are reasons to be excited. For one, both he and Eric Ebron are listed as starters on the depth chart. For a rookie to walk into that role is impressive and where he seems to be the most utilized is the red zone. In the only small bit we saw quarterback Ben Roethlisberger play this preseason, he found Freiermuth twice for a touchdown. Big Ben has always loved big targets around the goal line and Freiermuth is one big man at 6'5". He's got sure hands and the Steelers and his quarterback love him. It's not the most predictive stat, but the Bills gave up eight scores last year against the position. With Pittsburgh a big underdog and facing a likely pass-heavy script, this line makes sense for a half-unit bet. 

Thank you so much for reading, find me on Twitter @bucn4life, and let's make some money!