Washington Football Team @ Detroit Lions Matchup Preview - September 18th, 2022

Editor

The Washington Commanders faceoff against the Detroit Lions in a Week 2 matchup. The Lions enter the game as a slight favorite (-120) as the home team. Detroit is currently favored by -1.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 48.5.

Detroit's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 368 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #10 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #3-most yards per game (262) against the Lions. Opposing wide receivers have given the Lions the most trouble, posting 175 yards per game against this defense (#3-worst in football). Detroit's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their linebackers, who rank just #32 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. Detroit's defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #4-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Lions check in at #25 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 217 yards per game (#24 in football). Their run game has ranked #23 with 4.02 yards per attempt on the ground.

Washington's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #23 in the league while allowing 368 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #3-most yards per game: 262. The Commanders have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 175 yards per game (#3-worst). Washington's worst position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank just #32 in the league in locking down route-runners. Washington's pass rush has been weak this year, being weighed down by their defensive ends, which check in as just the #29-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Commanders have ranked #25 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 217 yards per game (#24 in football). On the ground they've ranked #23 with 4.02 yards per carry.

Washington Football Team Insights

  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

  • The Washington Commanders defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best group of DTs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.

  • The Washington Commanders defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in football.

Detroit Lions Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (7.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.7% in games he has played).

  • Jared Goff's passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 66.2% to 54.0%.

  • The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games at home (+5.95 Units / 198% ROI)

  • The Washington Commanders have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 41% ROI)

  • Jamaal Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 61% ROI)