Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Preview - November 14th, 2022

Editor

Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Commanders faceoff against Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles enter the game as a huge favorite (-515) as the home team. Philadelphia is currently favored by -11.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 43.0.

It's not easy to find something positive to say about Philadelphia. It's also not easy to find something negative to say, because by most measures they've been about as unremarkable as a team can be this season. On offense, they check in at #10 in the league in yards per game (354). They're basically a big gray blob no matter how they try to move the ball, ranking #11 in passing yards per game (246) and #12 in yards per carry (4.67). They've been similarly mediocre on the other side of the ball, giving this writing staff the chore of finding something interesting to say about their… checks notes… #12-ranked defense in yards allowed per game (332). K. Oh, what about their pass defense and run defense, you ask? There's got to be something there, right? Nope. #11 and #22 in the NFL, respectively. It's worthwhile to mention that the Philadelphia Eagles rank #3 in play action percentage, faking a handoff on 33.8% of their plays this season. Play action gets the defense to bite on a run play before the quarterback keeps the ball for himself and throws it downfield, which can make an otherwise weak offense look at least serviceable. When it comes to their offense, the Eagles check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 246 yards per game (#11 in football). Their run game has ranked #12 with 4.67 yards per attempt on the ground.

Washington's biggest weakness has been their rushing offense, checking in at #28 in the league with a mere 3.76 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and the worst running back can find success if he's given open space. It should come as no surprise then that Washington's o-line ranks #5-worst in this regard. In failing to successfully establish the run, Washington has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.33 yards per target, which ranks them #29 in football. In terms of their defense, the Commanders have ranked #16 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 244 yards per game through the air against them (#20 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #12 with 4.48 yards per carry. Washington has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 36 yards per game (#4-best). Washington has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 9.58 yards per target (#3-worst).

Washington Commanders Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Taylor Heinicke to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (10.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.4% in games he has played).

  • Taylor Heinicke's throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.0% to 62.1%.

  • The Washington Commanders have used play action on 34.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Philadelphia Eagles Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the Eagles to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Dallas Goedert has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (31.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Jalen Hurts to run for 0.59 touchdowns this week, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Eagles have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)

  • The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)

  • Dallas Goedert has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 28% ROI)