Titans vs Texans Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - December 31st, 2023

a year ago

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The Tennessee Titans will face off against the Houston Texans in a highly anticipated matchup on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. This game holds extra significance as both teams are divisional rivals, adding an additional layer of motivation to secure a victory.

The game will take place at NRG Stadium, the home stadium of the Houston Texans. The Titans have had a disappointing season, struggling to meet their preseason expectations with a record of 5-10. In contrast, the Texans have exceeded expectations, boasting a solid 8-7 record.

The Texans have been playing well recently, winning six out of their last ten games. On the other hand, the Titans have struggled, losing ten out of their last fifteen games. In their previous game, the Titans suffered a close defeat against the Seattle Seahawks, with a final score of 20-17. Similarly, the Texans fell short in their last game against the Cleveland Browns, losing with a score of 36-22.

The last time these two teams met was in Week 15 of this season, making this game a revenge match. In their previous encounter, the Texans secured a road victory, defeating the Titans 19-16. This game was particularly exciting as it came down to a single field goal.

The Texans are considered the favorites at home, and the odds reflect this, giving them a 68% chance of winning the game. The Titans, with a 32% chance, will be looking to defy the odds. The spread initially opened with the Texans favored by 3.5 points but has since moved to Texans -5.5, indicating significant movement.

This shift in the spread suggests that sharp bettors are backing the Texans, while sportsbooks may be rooting for the Titans to cover the spread due to potential liabilities. With the Texans being the 25th biggest favorite on the slate, this game promises to be an intriguing battle between two divisional foes.

As kickoff approaches, football fans and sports bettors alike will be eagerly awaiting the outcome of this matchup, which holds both divisional and revenge implications. Will the Texans continue their strong season, or will the Titans deliver an upset? Only time will tell.

Titans Insights

The leading projections forecast Chigoziem Okonkwo to be much more involved in his team's pass game near the end zone this week (17.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).
The Houston cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
In this week's game, DeAndre Hopkins is forecasted by the projection model to find himself in the 96th percentile among wideout with 0.57 receiving TDs.

Texans Insights

When it comes to executing run-blocking assignments (and the impact it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Houston Texans profiles as the worst in football last year.
Brevin Jordan's receiving efficiency has been refined this season, totaling 11.15 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 4.22 mark last season.
This year, the daunting Tennessee Titans defense has given up the least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing offenses: a meager 4.0 YAC.

Betting Trends

The Houston Texans have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.70 Units / 24% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
Derrick Henry has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+3.00 Units / 18% ROI)