Titans vs Colts Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 8th, 2023
The last time these two teams played each other was Week 7 in 2022. That game resulted in a road win for the Titans with a final score of 19-10. The Titans entered that game as a slight road favorite. They were favored by 2.5 points before covering the spread. The Game Total for that game was 43.0 and which the Under hit.
Tennessee's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #28 in the league with a mere 273 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #1-worst in football with 178 yards per game. It's tough to succeed when you don't have much time to throw, as has been the case for Tennessee. Their offensive line has ranked just #27 in pass protection. In terms of their defense, the Titans have ranked #14 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 260 yards per game through the air against them (#24 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #1 with 3.41 yards per carry. Tennessee has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 5.58 yards per target (#10-best). Tennessee has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 76.5% completion rate (#3-highest).
Indianapolis's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 408 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #3 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #5-most yards per game (284) against the Colts. Opposing tight ends have given the Colts the most trouble, posting 64 yards per game against this defense (#1-worst in football). Indianapolis's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their safeties, who rank just #29 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. When it comes to their offense, the Colts check in at #19 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 226 yards per game (#19 in football). Their run game has ranked #22 with 3.51 yards per attempt on the ground.
Titans Insights
The Titans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles project as the 5th-best collection of DTs in the league this year with their pass rush.
This year, the poor Indianapolis Colts defense has been gouged for the 7th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing RBs: a staggering 10.06 YAC.
Colts Insights
The model projects Zack Moss to be a much smaller piece of his offense's ground game in this week's game (28.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (75.0% in games he has played).
Kylen Granson's 59.6% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season's 77.7% rate.
The Colts have been among the least efficient passing teams in the league this year (#24 overall), averaging a paltry 6.41 adjusted yards-per-target.
Betting Trends
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+4.05 Units / 17% ROI)