These Teams Will NOT Win The 2024 Super Bowl!

Every year, I examine each team in the NFL Playoffs with the aim of identifying value in potential Super Bowl winners. As I've noted before, the team that emerges victorious in the playoffs is not necessarily the best team of the season but rather the team that performs best in the tournament at year's end. While determining the best team can be subjective, the playoffs provide a definitive way to settle things on the field. However, this can also mean that a lesser team may get lucky with favorable matchups and have a successful run at the championship.

Over the past 22 seasons, only 6 out of 22 teams with the best regular season record or tied for the best record have gone on to win the Super Bowl: the 2002 Buccaneers, 2003 Patriots, 2013 Seahawks, 2014 Patriots (one of five 12-4 teams that year), 2017 Philadelphia Eagles (one of four teams tied at 13-3), and last seasons Kansas City Chiefs (Tied with Phi at 14-3). In light of this, considering long shots can often be beneficial.

I used to use three filters to identify potential winners for the Super Bowl, and in recent years, I have added a few more. While this strategy is quite basic, it is effective for eliminating unlikely candidates for the championship

Here are my filters

1. Total Yardage Differential
The team must have a total yardage differential per game >18 (just four teams have won the Super Bowl with less)

Teams failing to qualify;
Pittsburgh
Houston
Philadelphia
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

2. Turnover Differential
Teams must be + in turnover differential (just eight teams won the Super Bowl with a – differential)

Teams failing to qualify:
Cleveland
Kansas City (won last season with negative turnover margin)
Philadelphia
LA Rams

3. SRS Rating

No team has ever won with a negative SRS from Pro Football Reference.

Teams failing to qualify:
Philadelphia


4. Passer Rating Differential
This stat looks at a team’s Offensive Passer Rating and subtracts its Defensive Passer Rating. This stat was shown to be relevant to Super Bowl success by the guys at Cold Hard Football Facts. In their analysis, they go back to 1940. Here are some key points

– 19 of 82 NFL Champs finished #1 in Offensive Passer Rating (23.2%)

– 21 of 82 finished #1 in Defensive Passer Rating (25.6%)

– 27 of 82 finished #1 in Passer Rating Differential (32.9%)

– 45 of 82 finished in the top 3 in Passer Rating Differential (54.9%)

– 77 of 82 finished in the top 10 in Passer Rating Differential (94%)

Teams failing to qualify:
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Green Bay
LA Rams

5. Yards per Pass and Yards Per Rush

To reinforce the notion that passing and being able to stop the pass are the most important factors in championship success, we will look at a couple more stats. Yards per Pass and Yards Per Rush. Both offensive and defensive and combined.

The Super Bowl winner has averaged a rank of 7.4 in Offensive Yards Per Pass and 7.2 in Defensive YPP while averaging 12.8 in Offensive Yards Per Rush and 11.5 in Defensive YPR.

Only 13 of the 52 Super Bowl winners did the winner have a better combined rushing ranking than passing. Of those 13, the 1979 Steelers ranked first in 3 of the four categories with a two ranking in DYPP. The 1988 49ers were no worse than 9(OYPP) in any category. In 2015 the Broncos were dominant defensively, ranking 1 in rushing and 2 in passing. The 2017 Eagles combined for 16 ranking points in passing and 10 in rushing.

Teams failing to qualify:
Miami
Pittsburgh
Houston
Detroit

6. Scoring Margin
One last stat to look at is Scoring Margin. Super Bowl winners have averaged a 9.4 scoring margin. No team has ever won with a negative scoring margin. Of the last 49 Super Bowl winners, just eight have finished with a scoring margin below 6.

Teams failing to qualify:
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Houston
Kansas City
Philadelphia
Detroit
Tampa Bay
LA Rams

7. Z Score
A few seasons ago, I started looking at the average for each of the most important stats and finding the standard deviation from the mean for each team in each stat. I take every team’s Z Score in each stat and add them up.

As you can see, most of these teams would be considered below average for a Super Bowl winner. Only Baltimore, Dallas, and San Francisco would be considered above-average Super Bowl winners. In recent years, teams have become less dominant against the rest of the league. In other words, parity has taken over the NFL. Since 2014, the highest-ranked Super Bowl winner has been the 2016 Patriots, who come in 15th overall. Five of the other nine winners were ranked 40th or lower. The average ranking in that timeframe has been 36th.


Analysis

Whenever I am betting on a future event with many possibilities, I first want to eliminate the teams I do not think have a chance to win based on the above stats.  If I remove the team prior, I won't list them again if they qualify to be removed.

1. Let's remove the teams with a sub 0 SRS.
Philadelphia

2. Only 1 team ever won the Super Bowl with a negative yard differential.
Let's remove
Pittsburgh
Houston
Philadelphia
Green Bay
Tampa Bay


3. Teams under a 9 in passer rating differential have won just six times. 
Let's remove
Miami
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Houston
Kansas City
Philadelphia
Detroit
Green Bay
Tampa Bay
LA Rams

4. I will remove teams with a negative turnover differential
Cleveland
Kansas City
Philadelphia
LA Rams

The Contenders

Dallas +750 Draftkings

When sizing up the Dallas Cowboys for a Super Bowl shot, they're ticking every box on the championship checklist. They've turned their home turf into a fortress, a crucial edge in playoff battles, though they might have to brace for a showdown with San Francisco in the NFC Championship - a game that'd play out in the 49ers' backyard. Stats-wise, Dallas is a powerhouse, flaunting the third-best Passer Rating Differential paired with the league's second-highest Scoring Margin. At +750, they're a value bet that's hard to ignore.

Now, let's talk Dak Prescott. The man's under the spotlight, with a playoff record that's sub par - just two victories out of six postseason starts. The Eagles' stumble has opened a door for Dallas, setting the stage for them to carve a path deep into the playoffs. Prescott's something to prove, which could be his golden ticket to flip the script. With stats and circumstances aligning, the Cowboys aren't just contenders; they're a solid bet for those looking to capitalize on their long odds.

Buffalo Bills +650 Ceasars

Buffalo's late-season surge is something straight out of a football fairytale. Midway through, at Week 12, they were sitting at a middling 6-6, practically in the Dolphins' dust. Fast forward to Week 18, and it's a whole different ball game. The Bills bulldozed their way into Miami, clinching the AFC's two seed and completing a stunning divisional comeback.

From a stats perspective, the Bills are a juggernaut. They wrapped up the regular season ranked 4th in my power rankings, showcasing top-10 performances in three out of the four key efficiency stats. Their only hiccup? Defensive yards per rush, where they're lagging at 28th. Their 5th-ranked passer rating differential is better than the historical average for Super Bowl champs.

What we've got here is a tempting proposition. Buffalo's odds are looking juicy for a squad that might just be the league's best as we head into the playoffs. If you're eyeing value, the Bills are a bet that's hard to pass up. They're hitting their stride when it matters most, and in this game, timing is everything.

Baltimore Ravens +350 Fanduel
Sitting atop the NFL mountain, both in terms of record and my power rankings, are the Baltimore Ravens. If you're into historical comparisons, their Z-score positions them as potentially the 12th best team ever to hoist a Lombardi Trophy, should they go all the way this season. Much like the Bills, the Ravens have just one chink in their armor: a 26th ranking in Defensive Rush Per Attempt. But let's not get hung up on that - they're top 3 in almost every other efficiency stat, including an impressive top spot in Defense per Pass Attempt.

Now, let's talk about Lamar Jackson. His playoff record (1-3) doesn't do justice to his talent, but remember, we're dealing with a small sample size here. He's a QB with a chip on his shoulder, looking to rewrite his postseason narrative. Make no mistake, the Ravens are going to be a formidable force in the playoffs. The big question for bettors is whether they're a smart pick at +350. That's the million-dollar question. The Ravens have the stats, they've got the drive, but only the playoffs will tell if the price truly matches their potential.

San Francisco +230 Fanduel

Throughout much of the season, the San Francisco 49ers were the cream of the crop in my Power Rankings. Sure, they slipped to second place after their tussle with Baltimore, but let's be clear: they're still a force to be reckoned with. The oddsmakers are leaning heavily towards the Niners for the Super Bowl, possibly seeing their NFC path as a smoother ride compared to the AFC gauntlet.

Statistically, San Francisco is a beast, especially in the all-important passer rating differential, leading the NFL. To put it in perspective, they'd be the most dominant team to win the Super Bow in this metric since the 2013 Seattle Seahawks, who had an astounding 39 PR differential. And let's not overlook their scoring margin – they're nipping at the Cowboys' heels, trailing by just fractions of a point. While their weakest link is a 14th place in Defensive Rush Yards per Attempt, they more than compensate with top-5 standings in the other three efficiency stats, including tops in Offensive Yards Per Pass.

I'm usually not one to jump on the chalk with these futures, but let's face it: San Francisco is likely the toughest team to beat in the postseason. Their recent loss to Baltimore? A bit of a fluke if you ask me – a game where every break seemed to go the Ravens' way and didn't truly reflect the closeness between these squads. If a rematch is on the cards, expect the 49ers to be the favorites, just as they were in their first encounter. They're a strong team, and in this case, going with the favorite might be the smart play.


My Bets
San Francisco risk .87 units to win 2
Buffalo risk .31 units to win 2


With this season's craziness, we can not be too shocked by any winner.

Good Luck!