Texans vs Jets Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - December 10th, 2023

a year ago

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The Houston Texans (7-5) are set to face off against the New York Jets (4-8) in an exciting Sunday afternoon game. The matchup will take place at MetLife Stadium, the home turf of the Jets, and is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 PM ET.

The Jets have had a challenging season, currently holding a 4-8 record. They have underperformed expectations so far, and their recent form reflects this, having lost five consecutive games. In their last outing, they fell short against the Atlanta Falcons with a final score of 13-8. The Jets are considered slight underdogs for this game, despite playing at home. The Moneyline for the Jets is +145, indicating a 40% implied win probability.

On the other hand, the Texans have exceeded expectations this season with a solid 7-5 record. They have played relatively well lately, winning seven of their last ten games. In their previous matchup, they secured a 22-17 victory over the Denver Broncos. As a result, the Texans enter this game as slight favorites, with a Moneyline of -165 and an implied win probability of 60%.

The last time these two teams faced each other was in Week 12 of the 2021 season, where the Jets emerged victorious with a 21-14 home win. However, the Texans have been performing better overall, and their recent form suggests they could turn the tables this time around.

In terms of betting, the Spread currently sits at Texans -3.0. The Spread initially opened at Texans -3.0 but was subsequently moved to -3.0 by bettors. This indicates that the Texans are expected to win by a field goal margin.

As the game approaches, both teams will be looking to solidify their positions in the league. The Texans aim to continue their strong run, while the Jets hope to break their losing streak and bounce back. Football fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching this matchup, as it has the potential to be an exciting showdown between two teams with contrasting seasons so far.

Texans Insights

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Texans to run on 48.3% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Noah Brown's receiving effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, totaling 13.29 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 8.04 mark last year.
Our trusted projections expect Nico Collins to compile 0.33 receiving TDs in this game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile amongamong wideouts.

Jets Insights

The predictive model expects Israel Abanikanda to be much less involved in his offense's passing offense in this game (1.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.4% in games he has played).
Garrett Wilson has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (109.0 per game) than he did last year (94.0 per game).
The Houston Texans pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the NFL.

Betting Trends

The New York Jets have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+2.65 Units / 24% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+15.85 Units / 67% ROI)
Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 40% ROI)