Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Preview - November 6th, 2022
Malik Willis and the Tennessee Titans faceoff against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs enter the game as a huge favorite (-680) as the home team. Kansas City is currently favored by -13.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 45.5.
Kansas City's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #1 in the NFL at 424 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Chiefs 334 yards per game through the air ranks #1-best in football this year. It's easy to see why they've done so well through the air when you notice the quality of their offensive line, which ranks #8 in the league in pass protection. It should also be said that opposing defenses have stacked the box a massive 9.3% of the time against the Chiefs in an attempt to keep their run game under control. Of course, this means fewer defenders back in coverage, which has opener up opportunities through the air for Kansas City. When it comes to their defense, the Chiefs check in at #26 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 298 yards per game against Kansas City this year (#31 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #10 against them with 4.39 yards per ground attempt. A strong argument could be made that their best position group is their defensive tackles, who rank #6 in the league in getting pressure on the quarterback. Kansas City's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 57 yards per game (#1-worst in the league).
Tennessee's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #29 in the league with a mere 293 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #2-worst in football with 170 yards per game. Perhaps because they haven't been able to move the ball through the air, defenses have been able to stack the box against them to help stop the run, bringing up an extra defender 26.4% of the time. It's tough to succeed when you don't have much time to throw, as has been the case for Tennessee. Their offensive line has ranked just #30 in pass protection. In terms of their defense, the Titans have ranked #22 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 292 yards per game through the air against them (#29 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #4 with 4.13 yards per carry. Tennessee has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 5 yards per target (#7-best). Tennessee has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 10.22 yards per target (#1-worst).
Tennessee Titans Insights
The Sharp Model projects Cody Hollister to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense this week (8.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.8% in games he has played).
Dontrell Hilliard has compiled significantly more air yards this year (7.0 per game) than he did last year (-4.0 per game).
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.97 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
Kansas City Chiefs Insights
The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends project as the best DE corps in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
Betting Trends
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 13% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Ryan Tannehill has hit the Passing Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.10 Units / 35% ROI)