Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Preview - January 7th, 2023
Joshua Dobbs and the Tennessee Titans faceoff against Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars enter the game as a huge favorite (-270) as the home team. Jacksonville is currently favored by -6.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 40.0.
Jacksonville's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #7 in football at 362 yards per game. The quality of their rushing attack has led to much of their success. The Jaguars 4.89 yards per carry ranks #5-best in the NFL. What makes the Jaguars run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 11.1% of the time, the #3-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Jacksonville hasn't been thwarted. When it comes to their defense, the Jaguars check in at #19 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 246 yards per game against Jacksonville this year (#23 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 against them with 4.37 yards per ground attempt. This Jaguars defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 63.6% of their passes (#6-lowest in the league). Jacksonville's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 8.96 yards per target (#3-worst in the league).
Tennessee's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #26 in the league while allowing 380 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #1-most yards per game: 299. They've had a hard time getting to the quarterback quickly, taking 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average) before applying pressure -- #4-slowest in the league. The Titans have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 194 yards per game (#1-worst). Tennessee's worst position group in coverage has been their cornerbacks, which rank just #26 in the league in locking down route-runners. In terms of their offense, the Titans have ranked #28 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 193 yards per game (#28 in football). On the ground they've ranked #24 with 4.12 yards per carry.
Tennessee Titans Insights
The Sharp Model projects Joshua Dobbs to be a more important option in his team's run game near the end zone this week (10.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).
Derrick Henry's pass-catching effectiveness has improved this year, totaling 8.73 yards-per-target compared to a measly 7.59 figure last year.
The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Jacksonville Jaguars Insights
The Sharp Model projects the Jaguars to call the 11th-least total plays on the slate this week with 64.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Evan Engram has put up significantly more air yards this season (37.0 per game) than he did last season (24.0 per game).
The Sharp Model projects Travis Etienne to rush for 0.59 touchdowns this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
Betting Trends
The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 56% ROI)
Evan Engram has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+6.00 Units / 46% ROI)