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Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts Matchup Preview - October 2nd, 2022


Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans faceoff against Matt Ryan and the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts enter the game as a big favorite (-210) as the home team. Indianapolis is currently favored by -4.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 43.0.

Tennessee's biggest weakness has been their rushing offense, checking in at #28 in the league with a mere 3.5 yards per carry. This is even sadder because they've faced a stacked box the #2-least of any team in the league at 26.4%. Even without that extra tackler that teams sometimes bring up near the line of scrimmage, the Titans have still struggled on the ground. This represents a particular disadvantage for Tennessee given that the Colts have excelled in stopping the run this year, allowing just 4.25 yards per carry (#7-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Titans have ranked #16 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 251 yards per game through the air against them (#25 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #13 with 4.34 yards per carry. Tennessee has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 6.05 yards per target (#3-best). Tennessee has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 176 yards per game (#3-worst).

Indianapolis's primary disadvantage this season has been their pass offense, which has ranked #28 in football with a low 209 yards per game through the air. This presents a decided disadvantage for Indianapolis given that the Titans pass defense has thrived this year, allowing a mere 7.86 yards per target (good for #22-best in football). When it comes to their defense, the Colts check in at #15 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 239 yards per game against Indianapolis this year (#20 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #7 against them with 4.25 yards per ground attempt. This Colts defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 7.51 yards per target (#4-best in the league). Indianapolis's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 63 yards per game (#1-worst in the league).

Tennessee Titans Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Dontrell Hilliard to be much less involved in his offense's run game this week (3.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.6% in games he has played).

  • Robert Woods has compiled a whopping 61.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wideouts.

  • The Tennessee Titans pass defense has excelled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 7.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in football.

Indianapolis Colts Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 126.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • The Indianapolis Colts linebackers rank as the best LB corps in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

  • The Indianapolis Colts have used play action on 33.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Betting Trends

  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 89% ROI)

  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+3.25 Units / 26% ROI)

  • Nyheim Hines has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 50% ROI)


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