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Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview - September 19th, 2022


Monday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Tennessee Titans (0-1) and Buffalo Bills (1-0). Oddsmakers peg the Bills as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 79%, leaving the Titans with a 21% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bills -10.0 with a Game Total of 47.5.

Buffalo's primary advantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a scant 4.3 yards per attempt on the ground -- #9-best in the NFL. Buffalo gets full marks because they haven't even sold out to stop the run the way many teams do. They've played with the standard seven men in the box 10.1% of the time this year. While many teams bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage to stop the run, the Bills have employed this tactic the #4-least in football. This Bills run defense has been aided by their safeties, who grade out as the #5-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Bills check in at #14 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 239 yards per game (#17 in football). Their run game has ranked #17 with 4.26 yards per attempt on the ground.

Tennessee's biggest strength has been their run defense, which ranks #9 in the league while allowing just 4.3 yards per carry this season. What makes Tennessee's success all the more impressive is that they've done this without stacking the box with an extra defender the way many teams try to plug the holes in their run defense. They've brought an extra defender up just 10.1% of the time, or #4-least in football. The Titans safeties have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #5-best in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Titans have ranked #14 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 239 yards per game (#17 in football). On the ground they've ranked #17 with 4.26 yards per carry.

Tennessee Titans Insights

  • The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

  • Tory Carter has totaled a paltry 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 24th percentile among RBs.

  • The Tennessee Titans have utilized play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Buffalo Bills Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (29.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.1% in games he has played).

  • The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

  • THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to notch 0.62 receiving TDs in this contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among WRs.

Betting Trends

  • The Buffalo Bills have scored first in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 35% ROI)

  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 61% ROI)

  • Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.65 Units / 56% ROI)


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