Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cleveland Browns Matchup Preview - November 27th, 2022

Editor

The Cleveland Browns come in as 3.5 point home underdog as they play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at FirstEnergy Stadium Sunday. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 7 in 2018. That game resulted in a road win for the Buccaneers with a final score of 26-23.

Tampa Bay's biggest weakness has been their rushing offense, checking in at #31 in the league with a mere 3.61 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and the worst running back can find success if he's given open space. It should come as no surprise then that Tampa Bay's o-line ranks #10-worst in this regard. In failing to successfully establish the run, Tampa Bay has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.68 yards per target, which ranks them #23 in football. In terms of their defense, the Buccaneers have ranked #12 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 205 yards per game through the air against them (#13 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #17 with 4.62 yards per carry. Tampa Bay has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 21 yards per game (#1-best). Positionally, perhaps their worst defensive asset has been their defensive ends, which rank just #32 in the league in terms of getting to the passer.

Cleveland's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 361 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #9 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #3-most yards per carry: 5.4. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their pass defense, which has landed them in the #31 spot in terms of yards per target (8.54). Browns defensive tackles are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #1-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for Cleveland given that the Buccaneers ground game has been so good this year, rushing for 3.61 yards per carry (#31-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Browns check in at #4 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 246 yards per game (#12 in football). Their run game has ranked #4 with 4.91 yards per attempt on the ground.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Insights

  • The forecast calls for light rain in this game... which generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

  • The Cleveland Browns defensive ends rank as the 10th-best collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to pass rush.

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Cleveland Browns Insights

  • The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

  • Jacoby Brissett has thrown for significantly more yards per game (246.0) this season than he did last season (125.0).

  • The Sharp Model projects David Njoku to total 0.21 receiving TDs in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.

Betting Trends

  • The Cleveland Browns have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.90 Units / 30% ROI)

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 13 games (+10.90 Units / 77% ROI)

  • Jacoby Brissett has hit the Completions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 67% ROI)