Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints Matchup Preview - September 18th, 2022

Editor

The New Orleans Saints come in as 2.5 point home underdog as they play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Caesars Superdome Sunday. The last time these teams battled was Week 15 of 2021 when the visiting Saints pulled off an upset on the road, beating the Buccaneers 9-0. New Orleans entered that game as a 11.5 point road underog. They had an implied win probablity of only 18% before pulling of a huge upset. The Game Total for that game was 46.0 and which the Under hit.

New Orleans's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #2 in the NFL at 449 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Saints 353 yards per game through the air ranks #2-best in football this year. They haven’t made things easy for opposing defense given they they've also positioned themselves in the top 10 on the ground as well, rushing for 4.79 yards per carry. It's easy to see why they've done so well through the air when you notice the quality of their offensive line, which ranks #10 in the league in pass protection. When it comes to their defense, the Saints check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 236 yards per game against New Orleans this year (#20 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 against them with 4.3 yards per ground attempt. This Saints defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 7.02 yards per target (#2-best in the league). New Orleans's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have caught 78.5% of their passes (#1-highest in the league).

Tampa Bay's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #2 in the league with 449 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #2-best in football with 353 yards per game. Perhaps because the defense has to take their pass game so seriously, the Buccaneers have also managed to rush for 4.79 yards per carry, which puts them in the top 10. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #10 in the league in pass protection. In terms of their defense, the Buccaneers have ranked #10 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 236 yards per game through the air against them (#20 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 with 4.3 yards per carry. Tampa Bay has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.02 yards per target (#2-best). Tampa Bay has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 78.5% completion rate (#1-highest).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Ke'Shawn Vaughn to be a much smaller piece of his team's run game this week (1.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (24.5% in games he has played).

  • Tom Brady has been among the top passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 283.0 yards per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

New Orleans Saints Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Jarvis Landry has posted a whopping 66.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among wide receivers.

  • THE BLITZ projects Taysom Hill to rush for 0.23 TDs in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among WRs and TEs.

Betting Trends

  • Alvin Kamara has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+3.95 Units / 24% ROI)