Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022


Sunday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) and Dallas Cowboys (0-0). Oddsmakers peg the Buccaneers as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 56%, leaving the Cowboys with a 44% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Buccaneers -2.5 with a Game Total of 51.0.

Dallas's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #4 in the NFL at 426 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Cowboys 315 yards per game through the air ranks #6-best in football this year. They haven’t made things easy for opposing defense given they they've also positioned themselves in the top 10 on the ground as well, rushing for 4.67 yards per carry. It's easy to see why they've done so well through the air when you notice the quality of their offensive line, which ranks #1 in the league in pass protection. It should also be said that opposing defenses have stacked the box a massive 13.3% of the time against the Cowboys in an attempt to keep their run game under control. Of course, this means fewer defenders back in coverage, which has opener up opportunities through the air for Dallas. When it comes to their defense, the Cowboys check in at #18 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 241 yards per game against Dallas this year (#23 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #16 against them with 4.45 yards per ground attempt. This Cowboys defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 57.6% of their passes (#1-lowest in the league). Dallas's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 163 yards per game (#5-worst in the league).

Tampa Bay's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #2 in the league with 454 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #2-best in football with 361 yards per game. Perhaps because the defense has to take their pass game so seriously, the Buccaneers have also managed to rush for 4.72 yards per carry, which puts them in the top 10. In terms of their defense, the Buccaneers have ranked #11 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 238 yards per game through the air against them (#22 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 with 4.31 yards per carry. Tampa Bay has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.19 yards per target (#2-best). Tampa Bay has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 78.9% completion rate (#2-highest).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Insights

  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

  • Tom Brady has been among the best QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 319.0 yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.

  • THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to pass for 2.22 TDs in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.

Dallas Cowboys Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Dak Prescott to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (15.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.1% in games he has played).

  • Dalton Schultz has totaled a monstrous 41.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among TEs.

  • The Dallas Cowboys defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.94 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-most in the league.

Betting Trends

  • The Dallas Cowboys have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.60 Units / 39% ROI)

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 36% ROI)

  • Tom Brady has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 28% ROI)