Statsational Super Bowl Top Props

The hottest type of betting in the US today is prop betting. If you are unfamiliar with a prop bet, check out my video on prop betting in my "Sharp Academy" sports betting course in the Sharp App and on YouTube.

Many of you under the age of 35 got your first taste of sports betting by playing season-long or daily fantasy sports. I (49 years old), started betting on sports before I knew what fantasy sports were. You found out the results of my first football fantasy league via snail mail on Thursday. Then they had a phone number you could call on Tuesday with your results. Those were the days!

When I started betting, prop bets were reserved for the Super Bowl and maybe a few in some big NBA games. Now we can bet them on every major sporting event. It is a fun wrinkle that can be costly if you do it incorrectly.

The main thing you need to understand when it comes to props is the juice or vig. Of course, if you are unfamiliar, there is plenty of info on this in my Sharp Academy series. The juice on a typical spread bet, like the Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 is -110. That -110 means for every $110 you bet, you win $100 if correct.

When looking at betting props, you will see the juice varies greatly from prop to prop and sportsbook to sportsbook. For this reason, having multiple sportsbooks is essential to trying to profit from sports betting. You can shop around for the best line and save yourself a great deal of money in the long term.

Let's do some quick math for you to illustrate the point. Have a look at Patrick Mahomes props for completions. I took a screenshot from our prop tool inside the Sharp App.

All of the sportsbooks have this prop at 25.5. We can easily compare these to each other. You want to get the lowest amount of juice on your bet. That means if you like the under on this number you should bet it at Draftkings because they are offering the best line of +105. If you like the over, you would want to bet this at -121 with Caesars. We now cut the spread of this bet from 35 cents at Caesars (the difference in juice from over to under) to 16 cents.

Let's assume you think the under hits about 50% of the time based on your numbers. If you bet the Under with Caesars at -113, our Expected Value (video on EV) on a $100 bet to win $100 would be -$6.5. Our EV, if we place this bet at Draftkings at +105, would be $2.50. That is the difference between being down $650 after making 100 such bets or being up $250. OPEN UP MULTIPLE SPORTSBOOKS!!! Use the links in this article to get you right to the sites. They also offer insane signup bonuses that can start your bankroll for free.

That example is not too hard to follow. What do we do when books offer the same props but with a different target number? Take, for instance, Jalen Hurts passing yardage.

As you can see, three books have 239.5 as the number to beat, and two have 238.5. Pointsbet is offering 235.5 The juice, of course, varies from book to book. I did a video last year on how to solve this problem that you can find here. I won't rehash it. If you are interested, it is not very long. If you have any questions, please leave them in the comments or hit me up on Discord.

For props, I would imagine 95% of the public looks at the props and then decides if they like that prop to go over or under. Of course, there are some yes-no type props and ones where you pick first TD, last TD, etc. I focus on counting type props with an over/under for this article. When I look at props, the first thing I do is run my projections. You may not have your own projections, but you really don't need them. We offer something called the Top Props for pro subscribers. These props will show you where the biggest edges are for each prop in every sport. This is based on our projections.

Every bet I make, I am looking for value. Once you have projections, I have two videos on props that will help you find that value. The first is on Poisson distribution. You will use Poisson when two things are true. 1. The variable must be something that is counted one at a time and 2. The probability of occurrence of an event is small, while the number of chances to achieve it is large. Poisson works well with things like TDs thrown, sacks, and receptions. There are many opportunities for these to occur (every play), but they do not happen frequently. For something like yardage, we would look to use Normal Distribution. Again have a look at my videos on both for a deeper understanding.

One other thing that is hugely important when playing multiple props in the same game is you must realize how much risk you are taking on the same point of view. I mean if you are taking Mahomes for over completions and over yardage and taking Kelce over catches and yardage, then there is a correlation in all 4 of those bets. Playing them for 1 unit size each is far too great a risk. We can be precise on the exact correlations, but we do not need to for this article. Just understand that if those are your four bets, you may want to reduce the risk on each to .25 units.

Here are the Props I like for the Super Bowl

Normally I am looking for a little more edge than some of these have, but hey, its the Super Bowl. Let's live a little!

You may notice these differ from the Top Props in the app. These picks are like the NBA Top Props article, available only for Pro subscribers. The NBA props are up about 50 units on the season and over 160 units since March of last year. Getting these props will pay for your pro subscription and then some!

Best of luck with the Super Bowl!