Statsational NFL Win Totals Simulation

2024 NFL Season: Analyzing Division, Conference, and Super Bowl Probabilities

As we gear up for the 2024 NFL season, fans and bettors alike are eager to predict which teams will rise to the top. To assist with these predictions, we’ve run a 10,000-season Monte Carlo simulation using the latest win projections, based on the Statsational Power Rankings from last season, with adjustments made for key personnel changes. The results provide a detailed look at the probabilities of each team winning their division, their conference, and ultimately, the Super Bowl. Here’s what you need to know.

Division Winners: The Clear Favorites and Surprising Contenders

NFC East: The Dallas Cowboys emerge as the clear frontrunners in the NFC East, with a probability of 66.08% to win the division. The Eagles, though strong contenders, lag behind with a 30.14% chance. The Giants and Washington are long shots, with probabilities of just 1.71% and 2.07%, respectively.

NFC North: The Detroit Lions are the team to beat in the NFC North with a 44.83% chance to take the division. The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers follow closely behind, each with probabilities hovering around 24-25%. The Minnesota Vikings, however, have a tough road ahead with only a 5.47% chance.

NFC South: The NFC South is shaping up to be a three-horse race. The New Orleans Saints lead the pack with a 40.46% chance, followed by the Atlanta Falcons at 38.51%. Tampa Bay is a distant third at 19.63%, while the Carolina Panthers are seen as the least likely to succeed, with just a 1.40% chance.

NFC West: San Francisco is the dominant force in the NFC West, with a massive 75.07% probability of winning the division. The LA Rams and Seattle Seahawks are distant challengers, each with less than a 20% chance. Arizona, meanwhile, faces an uphill battle with only a 3.41% probability.

AFC East: The Buffalo Bills are the favorites in the AFC East, boasting a 44.43% chance to win the division. Miami follows at 34.34%, with the New York Jets at 20.57%. The Patriots are significant underdogs, with only a 0.66% chance.

AFC North: The Baltimore Ravens are the team to watch in the AFC North, with a commanding 64.69% probability. The Bengals, though formidable, have a 21.67% chance. Cleveland and Pittsburgh trail with 10.49% and 3.15%, respectively.

AFC South: Indianapolis is the favorite in the AFC South with a 39.60% chance. Jacksonville and Houston are closely matched, with chances of 29.06% and 24.61%, respectively. Tennessee, however, seems outmatched with a mere 6.73% probability.

AFC West: Kansas City continues to dominate the AFC West with a 75.74% chance to take the division. The Chargers and Raiders have slim chances, at 11.03% and 9.07%, respectively. Denver brings up the rear with only a 4.16% probability.

Conference Championship Contenders

AFC Championship: The Baltimore Ravens lead the way with a 22.01% chance to win the AFC Championship, showcasing their strong potential to make a deep playoff run. Kansas City follows closely with a 19.89% chance, reflecting their consistent dominance in the conference. Buffalo and Miami also have solid probabilities, at 15.67% and 11.28%, respectively.

NFC Championship: The San Francisco 49ers are clear favorites in the NFC with a 28.60% chance of winning the conference title. Dallas is a strong second, with an 11.36% probability. The Eagles and Lions are also in the mix, with chances of 7.55% and 9.07%, respectively. Other teams in the NFC, like the Saints and Falcons, hover around 7-8%.

Super Bowl LVIII: Who Will Hoist the Lombardi Trophy?

As for the ultimate prize, the Super Bowl, the Baltimore Ravens have emerged as the top contenders, with a 15.92% probability of winning it all. The San Francisco 49ers are not far behind, boasting a 14.68% chance of securing the championship.

Kansas City also remains a strong candidate, with a 7.98% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Cowboys, with a 11.36% probability, and the Bills, at 6.55%, round out the top five contenders.

Interestingly, several dark horses have emerged from the simulation. The Miami Dolphins have a 4.68% chance to claim the title, while Detroit, Dallas, and New Orleans each maintain a solid, albeit lower, probability of success.

Conclusion

These projections offer a fascinating glimpse into the upcoming NFL season. Whether you’re backing a favorite or rooting for an underdog, these insights can help guide your expectations and betting strategies.

To dive deeper into these simulations—including detailed win totals, division winners, conference champions, and Super Bowl predictions—become a Pro Member and check out our Discord. The Models Channel has all of these simulations pinned, ready for you to explore and analyze. Stay sharp with The Sharp App!