Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Preview - November 13th, 2022

Editor

The Seattle Seahawks come in as 2.5 point road underdog as they travel to Allianz Arena to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The last time these two teams played was in Week 9 of 2019. That game produced a lot of points, as the visiting Seahawks pulled off the road win 40-34.

Tampa Bay's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #31 in football with a low 3.38 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, their line ranks #5-worst in the league in run blocking. Perhaps because they routinely failt to successfully establish the run, Tampa Bay has also lacked effectiveness through the air. They've scraped together a measly 6.53 yards per target, ranking the bottom 10 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Buccaneers check in at #5 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 198 yards per game against Tampa Bay this year (#3 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #18 against them with 4.73 yards per ground attempt. This Buccaneers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 16 yards per game (#1-best in the league). Tampa Bay's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have caught 78.2% of their passes (#8-highest in the league).

Seattle's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #2 in the league with 5.31 yards per carry. This is all the more impressive because they've faced a stacked box the #4-most of any team in the league at 11.5%. Even with an extra tackler near the line of scrimmage, the Seahawks have still thrived on the ground. With how successful they've been on the ground, this has opened up opportunities through the air as well; Seattle has averaged 7.66 yards per target, which ranks them #6 in football. In terms of their defense, the Seahawks have ranked #26 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 248 yards per game through the air against them (#22 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #23 with 5.01 yards per carry. Seattle has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 124 yards per game (#3-best). Seattle has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 75 yards per game (#1-worst).

Seattle Seahawks Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Geno Smith to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (17.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.7% in games he has played).

  • Geno Smith's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 68.8% to 72.8%.

  • The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 137.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Mike Evans has notched far more air yards this season (116.0 per game) than he did last season (99.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects Mike Evans to total 0.47 receiving TDs in this game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.

Betting Trends

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)

  • The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+13.30 Units / 83% ROI)

  • Tom Brady has hit the Passing Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+6.60 Units / 50% ROI)