Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals Matchup Preview - November 6th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Seattle Seahawks (5-3) will battle the Arizona Cardinals (3-5). Oddsmakers peg the Cardinals as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 54%, leaving the Seahawks with a 46% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Cardinals -2.0 with a Game Total of 49.0.

Seattle's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #3 in the league with 5.37 yards per carry. This is all the more impressive because they've faced a stacked box the #4-most of any team in the league at 11.5%. Even with an extra tackler near the line of scrimmage, the Seahawks have still thrived on the ground. With how successful they've been on the ground, this has opened up opportunities through the air as well; Seattle has averaged 7.65 yards per target, which ranks them #8 in football. This represents a particular advantage for Seattle given that the Cardinals have struggled so much to stop the run this year, allowing 5.05 yards per carry (#8-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Seahawks have ranked #28 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 258 yards per game through the air against them (#23 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #23 with 5.02 yards per carry. Seattle has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 130 yards per game (#4-best). Seattle has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 78 yards per game (#1-worst).

Arizona's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 385 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #10 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #8-most yards per carry: 5.05. Cardinals linebackers are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #3-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Cardinals check in at #18 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 257 yards per game (#9 in football). Their run game has ranked #23 with 4.14 yards per attempt on the ground.

Seattle Seahawks Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Geno Smith to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (17.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (9.0% in games he has played).

  • Geno Smith's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 68.8% to 72.3%.

  • The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Arizona Cardinals Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Robby Anderson has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (63.0 per game) than he did last year (68.0 per game).

  • The Sharp Model projects DeAndre Hopkins to notch 0.59 receiving TDs this week, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

Betting Trends

  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)

  • The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games (+12.25 Units / 82% ROI)

  • Geno Smith has hit the TD Passes Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.90 Units / 56% ROI)