Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Matchup Preview - September 18th, 2022

Editor

The Seattle Seahawks come in as 9.0 point road underdog as they travel to Levi's Stadium to play the San Francisco 49ers. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 13 in 2021. That game resulted in a road win for the Seahawks with a final score of 30-23. Seattle entered that game as a 3.0 point road underog. They had an implied win probablity of only 44% before pulling of the upset. The Game Total for that game was 44.5 and which the Over hit.

San Francisco's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 391 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #3 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #2-most yards per game (275) against the 49ers. Opposing running backs have given the 49ers the most trouble, posting 61 yards per game against this defense (#1-worst in football). San Francisco's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their safeties, who rank just #29 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. San Francisco's defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #3-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for San Francisco given that the Seahawks air attack has been so good this year, passing their way to 7.33 yards per target (#10-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the 49ers check in at #24 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 213 yards per game (#25 in football). Their run game has ranked #4 with 4.88 yards per attempt on the ground.

Seattle's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #30 in the league while allowing 391 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #2-most yards per game: 275. The Seahawks have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing running backs, allowing them to rack up 61 yards per game (#1-worst). Seattle's worst position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank just #29 in the league in locking down route-runners. Seattle's pass rush has been weak this year, being weighed down by their defensive ends, which check in as just the #30-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. This represents a particular disadvantage for Seattle given that the 49ers have excelled in the pass game this year, accumulating 7.33 yards per target (#10-best in the league). In terms of their offense, the Seahawks have ranked #24 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 213 yards per game (#25 in football). On the ground they've ranked #4 with 4.88 yards per carry.

Seattle Seahawks Insights

  • The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

  • The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles profile as the best collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

  • The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 7.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in football.

San Francisco 49ers Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Trey Lance to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (24.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.0% in games he has played).

  • Trey Lance has been among the least on-target QBs in football since the start of last season with a 52.7% Completion%, grading out in the 12th percentile.

  • The San Francisco 49ers have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 41% ROI)

  • The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+5.45 Units / 66% ROI)

  • Deebo Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.85 Units / 31% ROI)