San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders Matchup Preview - January 1st, 2023

Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers faceoff against Jarrett Stidham and the Las Vegas Raiders. The 49ers enter the game as a huge favorite (-470) despite being on the road. San Francisco is currently favored by -10.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 41.0.

Las Vegas's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #2 in football at 4.94 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. To that point, Las Vegas's line ranks #3-best in the league in run blocking. When it comes to their defense, the Raiders check in at #27 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 264 yards per game against Las Vegas this year (#28 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #15 against them with 4.52 yards per ground attempt. A strong argument could be made that their best position group is their defensive ends, who rank #3 in the league when it comes to run-stopping. Las Vegas's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 48 yards per game (#1-worst in the league).

San Francisco's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #1 in the league while allowing just 304 yards per game. Much of their success has been in shutting down the run game, holding opposing ball-carriers to the #1-least yards per carry: 3.45. That's not to take anything away from their pass defense, though, which checks in at #6 in yards per target (7.01). The 49ers linebackers have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #1-best in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the 49ers have ranked #16 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 239 yards per game (#15 in football). On the ground they've ranked #5 with 4.82 yards per carry.

San Francisco 49ers Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Brock Purdy to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (9.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.2% in games he has played).

• George Kittle has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (48.0 per game).

• The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.63 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.

Las Vegas Raiders Insights

• The Sharp Model projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

• The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the best group of LBs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

• The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Betting Trends

• The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)

• The San Francisco 49ers have scored first in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 32% ROI)

• Josh Jacobs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.30 Units / 45% ROI)