San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022

Editor

The Denver Broncos come in as 1.5 point home underdog as they play the San Francisco 49ers at Empower Field at Mile High Sunday. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 14 in 2018. That game resulted in a road win for the 49ers with a final score of 20-14.

Denver's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 317 yards per game -- #6-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #6-least yards per game: 212. The Denver Broncos pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing running backs, holding them to a 72.4% completion rate (#2-stingiest in football). Denver's best coverage unit has been their linebackers, which grade out as the #5 unit in the NFL in this regard. When it comes to their offense, the Broncos check in at #18 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 227 yards per game (#21 in football). Their run game has ranked #11 with 4.4 yards per attempt on the ground.

San Francisco's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #3 in the league while allowing just 310 yards per game. Much of their success has been in shutting down the run game, holding opposing ball-carriers to the #2-least yards per carry: 3.96. The 49ers linebackers have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #4-best in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the 49ers have ranked #14 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 262 yards per game (#11 in football). On the ground they've ranked #13 with 4.33 yards per carry.

San Francisco 49ers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the 49ers to call the 6th-least total plays on the slate this week with 59.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Kyle Juszczyk has accrued a colossal 14.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • The Sharp Model projects Deebo Samuel to run for 0.18 TDs in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among WRs and TEs.

Denver Broncos Insights

  • The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

  • The Denver Broncos linebackers project as the 5th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

  • The Denver Broncos defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.06 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-most in football.

Betting Trends

  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)

  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)

  • Courtland Sutton has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.50 Units / 45% ROI)