San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals Matchup Preview - November 21st, 2022


Monday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) and Arizona Cardinals (4-6). Oddsmakers peg the 49ers as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 79%, leaving the Cardinals with a 21% chance to record a win. The current spread is the 49ers -10.0 with a Game Total of 43.0.

San Francisco's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #1 in the league while allowing just 293 yards per game. Much of their success has been in shutting down the run game, holding opposing ball-carriers to the #1-least yards per carry: 3.54. That's not to take anything away from their pass defense, though, which checks in at #8 in yards per target (7.24). The 49ers safeties have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #1-best in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular advantage for San Francisco given that the Cardinals have struggled so much with their run game this year, managing just 4.14 yards per carry (#9-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the 49ers have ranked #16 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 242 yards per game (#13 in football). On the ground they've ranked #11 with 4.66 yards per carry.

Arizona's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 380 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #10 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #7-most yards per carry: 5.01. Cardinals linebackers are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #2-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Cardinals check in at #19 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 246 yards per game (#10 in football). Their run game has ranked #24 with 4.14 yards per attempt on the ground.

San Francisco 49ers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects the 49ers to call the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo has passed for many more yards per game (246.0) this year than he did last year (207.0).

  • The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has struggled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 8.28 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.

Arizona Cardinals Insights

  • DeAndre Hopkins has accumulated many more air yards this season (104.0 per game) than he did last season (81.0 per game).

  • The Arizona Cardinals have gone no-huddle on 35.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Betting Trends

  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.70 Units / 47% ROI)

  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.35 Units / 26% ROI)

  • A.J. Green has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 37% ROI)