San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals Matchup Preview - November 21st, 2022
Editor
Monday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) and Arizona Cardinals (4-6). Oddsmakers peg the 49ers as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 79%, leaving the Cardinals with a 21% chance to record a win. The current spread is the 49ers -10.0 with a Game Total of 43.0.
San Francisco's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #1 in the league while allowing just 293 yards per game. Much of their success has been in shutting down the run game, holding opposing ball-carriers to the #1-least yards per carry: 3.54. That's not to take anything away from their pass defense, though, which checks in at #8 in yards per target (7.24). The 49ers safeties have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #1-best in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular advantage for San Francisco given that the Cardinals have struggled so much with their run game this year, managing just 4.14 yards per carry (#9-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the 49ers have ranked #16 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 242 yards per game (#13 in football). On the ground they've ranked #11 with 4.66 yards per carry.
Arizona's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 380 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #10 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #7-most yards per carry: 5.01. Cardinals linebackers are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #2-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Cardinals check in at #19 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 246 yards per game (#10 in football). Their run game has ranked #24 with 4.14 yards per attempt on the ground.
San Francisco 49ers Insights
The Sharp Model projects the 49ers to call the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jimmy Garoppolo has passed for many more yards per game (246.0) this year than he did last year (207.0).
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has struggled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 8.28 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.
Arizona Cardinals Insights
DeAndre Hopkins has accumulated many more air yards this season (104.0 per game) than he did last season (81.0 per game).
The Arizona Cardinals have gone no-huddle on 35.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Betting Trends
The Arizona Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.70 Units / 47% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.35 Units / 26% ROI)
A.J. Green has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.25 Units / 37% ROI)