San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the San Francisco 49ers (0-0) will battle the Chicago Bears (0-0). Oddsmakers peg the 49ers as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 73%, leaving the Bears with a 27% chance to record a win. The current spread is the 49ers -7.0 with a Game Total of 40.5.

Ranked #5 in the league and allowing only 319 yards per game, San Francisco's success has been driven by their defense. At 4.1 yards per carry (#6-least), their stout front has stifled the opposing run game. The 49ers' impressive run defense has been anchored by the linebacker unit, ranking #2-best in the league by this metric. The Bears have been particularly bad on the ground this season (3.88 yards per carry, #8-worst), so San Francisco's dominance in run defense may be the deciding factor in this matchup. The 49ers are currently ranked #10 in the league in total offensive yards per game. Ranked #10 in football, they've passed for 282 yards per game. They've also added 4.31 yards per carry (#15 in the league).

Ranking #7 in the NFL and with only 321 yards allowed per game, Chicago's main strength has been their defense. At 194 receiving yards allowed per game, #3-least in the league, they're controlling their opponent's aerial game. The Chicago Bears have excelled at limiting opposing tight ends, who are averaging just 35 yards per game against them (#2-best). In terms of total offensive yards per game, the Bears are ranked #27 in the league. Ranked #24 in the league, they've averaged 216 yards through the air. They've carried the ball for 3.88 yards per attempt (#25 in football).

San Francisco 49ers Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Trey Lance has been among the least accurate passers in football since the start of last season with a 53.5% Completion%, checking in at the 13th percentile.

  • The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the NFL.

Chicago Bears Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 7th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 45.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • Cole Kmet has totaled a monstrous 44.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among TEs.

  • The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 games (+3.90 Units / 24% ROI)

  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.30 Units / 22% ROI)

  • Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+6.65 Units / 77% ROI)