San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022
Sunday the San Francisco 49ers (0-0) will battle the Chicago Bears (0-0). Oddsmakers peg the 49ers as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 73%, leaving the Bears with a 27% chance to record a win. The current spread is the 49ers -7.0 with a Game Total of 40.5.
Ranked #5 in the league and allowing only 319 yards per game, San Francisco's success has been driven by their defense. At 4.1 yards per carry (#6-least), their stout front has stifled the opposing run game. The 49ers' impressive run defense has been anchored by the linebacker unit, ranking #2-best in the league by this metric. The Bears have been particularly bad on the ground this season (3.88 yards per carry, #8-worst), so San Francisco's dominance in run defense may be the deciding factor in this matchup. The 49ers are currently ranked #10 in the league in total offensive yards per game. Ranked #10 in football, they've passed for 282 yards per game. They've also added 4.31 yards per carry (#15 in the league).
Ranking #7 in the NFL and with only 321 yards allowed per game, Chicago's main strength has been their defense. At 194 receiving yards allowed per game, #3-least in the league, they're controlling their opponent's aerial game. The Chicago Bears have excelled at limiting opposing tight ends, who are averaging just 35 yards per game against them (#2-best). In terms of total offensive yards per game, the Bears are ranked #27 in the league. Ranked #24 in the league, they've averaged 216 yards through the air. They've carried the ball for 3.88 yards per attempt (#25 in football).
San Francisco 49ers Insights
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Trey Lance has been among the least accurate passers in football since the start of last season with a 53.5% Completion%, checking in at the 13th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the NFL.
Chicago Bears Insights
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 7th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 45.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Cole Kmet has totaled a monstrous 44.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among TEs.
The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 games (+3.90 Units / 24% ROI)
The San Francisco 49ers have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.30 Units / 22% ROI)
Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+6.65 Units / 77% ROI)