Saints vs Buccaneers Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - December 31st, 2023

a year ago

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In a highly anticipated divisional matchup, the New Orleans Saints are set to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Both teams will be looking to secure a victory and gain an edge in their divisional standings.

The Saints, with a current record of 7-8 this season, have had a challenging year. They enter this game on the back of a disappointing loss to the Los Angeles Rams, where they were shut out 30-0. Additionally, the Saints have struggled on the road, losing their last three away games.

On the other hand, the Buccaneers have exceeded expectations this season with an 8-7 record. They have been on a hot streak, winning their last four games, including a convincing 30-12 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars in their previous outing.

The last time these two teams faced each other was in Week 4 of this season, resulting in a road win for the Buccaneers. Despite being 4.5-point underdogs with a 35% chance of winning, the Buccaneers pulled off an upset, defeating the Saints 26-9. This adds an extra layer of significance to the upcoming game, as the Saints will be seeking revenge.

Heading into this matchup, the Buccaneers are considered slight favorites at home. The odds suggest that they have a 57% chance of winning, while the Saints have a 43% chance. The initial spread opened with the Buccaneers favored by 3 points, but it has since moved to Buccaneers -2.5, indicating a slight shift in favor of the Saints.

One notable factor in this game is the difference in rest days for the two teams. The Saints will have three extra days of rest, which can give them an advantage in terms of preparation and recovery. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers will be playing on normal rest.

As the game approaches, both teams will be motivated to secure a victory and improve their divisional standings. With the Buccaneers on a winning streak and the Saints seeking redemption, this matchup promises to be a thrilling battle on the field.

Saints Insights

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.
Derek Carr's 65.9% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a substantial progression in his throwing precision over last season's 61.4% figure.
In this contest, Taysom Hill is expected by the projection model to rank in the 100th percentile among WRs and TEs with 0.28 TDs on the ground.

Buccaneers Insights

While Sean Tucker has been responsible for 15.2% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much smaller piece of Tampa Bay's running game this week at 0.1%.
Chris Godwin has totaled far more air yards this year (77.0 per game) than he did last year (60.0 per game).
This year, the stout Saints pass defense has conceded the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing running backs: a puny 6.1 YAC.

Betting Trends

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Juwan Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 13 games (+4.90 Units / 37% ROI)