Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Preview - October 30th, 2022
Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers faceoff against Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles enter the game as a huge favorite (-515) as the home team. Philadelphia is currently favored by -11.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 43.0.
It's not easy to find something positive to say about Philadelphia. It's also not easy to find something negative to say, because by most measures they've been about as unremarkable as a team can be this season. On offense, they check in at #12 in the league in yards per game (350). They're basically a big gray blob no matter how they try to move the ball, ranking #16 in passing yards per game (241) and #16 in yards per carry (4.49). They've been similarly mediocre on the other side of the ball, giving this writing staff the chore of finding something interesting to say about their… checks notes… #8-ranked defense in yards allowed per game (326). K. Oh, what about their pass defense and run defense, you ask? There's got to be something there, right? Nope. #11 and #21 in the NFL, respectively. It's worthwhile to mention that the Philadelphia Eagles rank #3 in play action percentage, faking a handoff on 33.8% of their plays this season. Play action gets the defense to bite on a run play before the quarterback keeps the ball for himself and throws it downfield, which can make an otherwise weak offense look at least serviceable. When it comes to their offense, the Eagles check in at #12 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 241 yards per game (#16 in football). Their run game has ranked #16 with 4.49 yards per attempt on the ground.
Pittsburgh's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #24 in the league with a mere 297 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #1-worst in football with just 3.36 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and the worst running back can find success if he's given open space. It should come as no surprise then that Pittsburgh's o-line ranks #9-worst in this regard. In failing to successfully establish the run, Pittsburgh has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.53 yards per target, which ranks them #26 in football. In terms of their defense, the Steelers have ranked #28 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 294 yards per game through the air against them (#29 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #8 with 4.37 yards per carry. Pittsburgh has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to a 72.8% completion rate (#8-lowest). Pittsburgh has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 206 yards per game (#1-worst).
Pittsburgh Steelers Insights
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Kenny Pickett has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with an impressive 73.0% Completion%, checking in at the 100th percentile.
The Sharp Model projects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 0.22 receiving TDs in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
Philadelphia Eagles Insights
The Sharp Model projects Jalen Hurts to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (34.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (25.3% in games he has played).
A.J. Brown has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (85.0 per game) than he did last season (97.0 per game).
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.29 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the league.
Betting Trends
The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.00 Units / 26% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 14 games (+2.65 Units / 18% ROI)
Jalen Hurts has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.65 Units / 43% ROI)