Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022

Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers faceoff against Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins enter the game as a huge favorite (-340) as the home team. Miami is currently favored by -7.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 44.5.

Pittsburgh's biggest weakness has been their rushing offense, checking in at #32 in the league with a mere 3.29 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and the worst running back can find success if he's given open space. It should come as no surprise then that Pittsburgh's o-line ranks #8-worst in this regard. In failing to successfully establish the run, Pittsburgh has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.48 yards per target, which ranks them #27 in football. In terms of their defense, the Steelers have ranked #29 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 300 yards per game through the air against them (#30 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #10 with 4.36 yards per carry. Positionally, perhaps their best defensive asset has been their safeties, which rank #5 in the league in terms of stopping the run. Pittsburgh has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 213 yards per game (#1-worst).

Miami's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #27 in football with a low 3.74 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. Unfortunately for Miami, their line ranks #9-worst in the league in run blocking. When it comes to their defense, the Dolphins check in at #15 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 245 yards per game against Miami this year (#17 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #17 against them with 4.67 yards per ground attempt. This Dolphins defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 62.4% of their passes (#7-lowest in the league). Miami's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 8.41 yards per target (#2-worst in the league).

Pittsburgh Steelers Insights

• The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

• Kenny Pickett has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with a stellar 71.9% Completion%, checking in at the 96th percentile.

• The Sharp Model projects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 0.26 receiving touchdowns this week, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among tight ends.

Miami Dolphins Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Tua Tagovailoa to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (9.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.6% in games he has played).

• Tyreek Hill has posted far more air yards this year (114.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).

• The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.43 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.

Betting Trends

• The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+11.20 Units / 70% ROI)

• The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 28% ROI)

• Teddy Bridgewater has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)