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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts Matchup Preview - November 28th, 2022


The Pittsburgh Steelers come in as 2.5 point road underdog as they travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to play the Indianapolis Colts. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 16 in 2020. That game resulted in a road win for the Steelers with a final score of 28-24.

Pittsburgh's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #23 in the league with a mere 309 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #5-worst in football with just 3.78 yards per carry. In failing to successfully establish the run, Pittsburgh has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.51 yards per target, which ranks them #25 in football. This represents a particular disadvantage for Pittsburgh given that the Colts have excelled in stopping the run this year, allowing just 4.19 yards per carry (#7-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Steelers have ranked #23 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 255 yards per game through the air against them (#28 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #5 with 4.18 yards per carry. Pittsburgh has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 62.1% completion rate (#6-lowest). Pittsburgh has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 170 yards per game (#3-worst).

Indianapolis's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 308 yards per game -- #5-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #5-least yards per game: 189. To give credit where credit is due, their run defense has also been terrific, checking in at #7 in yards per carry (4.19). The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing wide receivers, who have managed just 104 yards per game against them (#32-least in football). When it comes to their offense, the Colts check in at #16 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 252 yards per game (#8 in football). Their run game has ranked #25 with 4.02 yards per attempt on the ground.

Pittsburgh Steelers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 131.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Pat Freiermuth's receiving skills have been refined this year, accumulating 5.1 yards per game vs a mere 3.6 last year.

  • The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has struggled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 8.81 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.

Indianapolis Colts Insights

  • Michael Pittman has posted quite a few less air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).

  • The Indianapolis Colts have incorporated play action on 33.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Betting Trends

  • The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.75 Units / 52% ROI)

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.75 Units / 20% ROI)

  • Kenny Pickett has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 5 games (+5.45 Units / 49% ROI)


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