Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview - October 9th, 2022

Sunday the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) will battle the Buffalo Bills (3-1). Oddsmakers peg the Bills as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 86%, leaving the Steelers with a 14% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bills -14.0 with a Game Total of 44.5.

Pittsburgh's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #27 in the league with a mere 120 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #5-worst in football with just 3.61 yards per carry. In failing to successfully establish the run, Pittsburgh has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.33 yards per target, which ranks them #28 in football. This represents a particular disadvantage for Pittsburgh given that the Bills have excelled in stopping the run this year, allowing just 4.08 yards per carry (#4-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Steelers have ranked #27 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 281 yards per game through the air against them (#28 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #10 with 4.19 yards per carry. Pittsburgh has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to a 68.8% completion rate (#6-lowest). Pittsburgh has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 194 yards per game (#5-worst).

Buffalo's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 250 yards per game -- #2-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 167. To give credit where credit is due, their run defense has also been terrific, checking in at #4 in yards per carry (4.08). The Buffalo Bills pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing tight ends, who have managed just 18 yards per game against them (#32-least in football). Buffalo's best coverage unit has been their linebackers, which grade out as the #1 unit in the NFL in this regard. Buffalo's pass rush has been led by their defensive ends who, ranking as the #1 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. When it comes to their offense, the Bills check in at #28 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 47 yards per game (#21 in football). Their run game has ranked #11 with 4.39 yards per attempt on the ground.

Pittsburgh Steelers Insights

• The forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

• The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

• The Buffalo Bills pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.85 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.

Buffalo Bills Insights

• The Sharp Model projects Josh Allen to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (33.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.0% in games he has played).

• Josh Allen has passed for significantly more yards per game (317.0) this season than he did last season (249.0).

• The Buffalo Bills have incorporated play action on 33.7% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (4th-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Betting Trends

• The Buffalo Bills have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.95 Units / 55% ROI)

• The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.55 Units / 22% ROI)

• Pat Freiermuth has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.35 Units / 36% ROI)