Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens Matchup Preview - January 1st, 2023

Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers faceoff against Tyler Huntley and the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens enter the game as a slight favorite (-125) as the home team. Baltimore is currently favored by -1.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 35.0.

Pittsburgh's biggest weakness has been their rushing offense, checking in at #29 in the league with a mere 3.86 yards per carry. This represents a particular disadvantage for Pittsburgh given that the Ravens have excelled in stopping the run this year, allowing just 3.95 yards per carry (#3-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Steelers have ranked #15 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 246 yards per game through the air against them (#22 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #7 with 4.27 yards per carry. Pittsburgh has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 60.6% completion rate (#2-lowest). Pittsburgh has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 6.81 yards per target (#3-worst).

Baltimore's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #2 in football at 4.94 yards per carry. When it comes to their defense, the Ravens check in at #17 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 267 yards per game against Baltimore this year (#29 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #3 against them with 3.95 yards per ground attempt. Baltimore's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have caught 71.5% of their passes (#2-highest in the league).

Pittsburgh Steelers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Pat Freiermuth has posted a lot more receiving yards per game (54.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).

  • The Baltimore Ravens defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.59 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in football.

Baltimore Ravens Insights

  • Mark Andrews has notched quite a few less air yards this season (80.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).

  • The Baltimore Ravens have incorporated play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Betting Trends

  • The Baltimore Ravens have scored first in 13 of their last 17 games (+7.15 Units / 30% ROI)

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.30 Units / 17% ROI)

  • Demarcus Robinson has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 64% ROI)