Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022
Sunday the Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) will battle the Cincinnati Bengals (0-0). Oddsmakers peg the Bengals as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 71%, leaving the Steelers with a 29% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bengals -6.5 with a Game Total of 44.5.
Cincinnati's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #5 in the NFL at 417 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Bengals 327 yards per game through the air ranks #4-best in football this year. When it comes to their defense, the Bengals check in at #19 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 254 yards per game against Cincinnati this year (#27 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #13 against them with 4.35 yards per ground attempt. A strong argument could be made that their best position group is their safeties, who rank #6 in the league in coverage. Cincinnati's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 45 yards per game (#5-worst in the league).
Pittsburgh's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #24 in the league while allowing 365 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #2-most yards per carry: 5.01. What makes Pittsburgh's issues all the more troublesome is that they've struggled in spite of stacking the box with an extra defender 21% of the time -- #6-most of any team in football. The Steelers defensive tackles have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #5-worst in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Steelers have ranked #19 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 261 yards per game (#12 in football). On the ground they've ranked #30 with 3.47 yards per carry.
Pittsburgh Steelers Insights
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Diontae Johnson has compiled a whopping 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to notch 0.16 receiving TDs in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Cincinnati Bengals Insights
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties project as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.43 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+7.30 Units / 61% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored last in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.75 Units / 65% ROI)
Chase Claypool has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.40 Units / 36% ROI)
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