Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) will battle the Cincinnati Bengals (0-0). Oddsmakers peg the Bengals as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 71%, leaving the Steelers with a 29% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Bengals -6.5 with a Game Total of 44.5.

Cincinnati's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #5 in the NFL at 417 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Bengals 327 yards per game through the air ranks #4-best in football this year. When it comes to their defense, the Bengals check in at #19 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 254 yards per game against Cincinnati this year (#27 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #13 against them with 4.35 yards per ground attempt. A strong argument could be made that their best position group is their safeties, who rank #6 in the league in coverage. Cincinnati's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 45 yards per game (#5-worst in the league).

Pittsburgh's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #24 in the league while allowing 365 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #2-most yards per carry: 5.01. What makes Pittsburgh's issues all the more troublesome is that they've struggled in spite of stacking the box with an extra defender 21% of the time -- #6-most of any team in football. The Steelers defensive tackles have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #5-worst in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Steelers have ranked #19 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 261 yards per game (#12 in football). On the ground they've ranked #30 with 3.47 yards per carry.

Pittsburgh Steelers Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Diontae Johnson has compiled a whopping 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among wide receivers.

  • THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to notch 0.16 receiving TDs in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

Cincinnati Bengals Insights

  • The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

  • The Cincinnati Bengals safeties project as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

  • The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.43 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in the league.

Betting Trends

  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+7.30 Units / 61% ROI)

  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored last in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.75 Units / 65% ROI)

  • Chase Claypool has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.40 Units / 36% ROI)