Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Football Team Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022


The Philadelphia Eagles faceoff against the Washington Commanders in a Week 3 matchup. The Eagles enter the game as a huge favorite (-265) despite being on the road. Philadelphia is currently favored by -6.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 47.5.

Washington's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 375 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #6 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #3-most yards per game (262) against the Commanders. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their run defense, which has landed them in the #23 spot in terms of yards per carry (4.68). Opposing wide receivers have given the Commanders the most trouble, posting 176 yards per game against this defense (#3-worst in football). Washington's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their linebackers, who rank just #31 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. Washington's defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #4-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Commanders check in at #25 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 223 yards per game (#23 in football). Their run game has ranked #24 with 3.95 yards per attempt on the ground.

Philadelphia's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #3 in the league with 4.86 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Philadelphia's o-line ranks #3-best in this regard. This represents a particular advantage for Philadelphia given that the Commanders have struggled so much to stop the run this year, allowing 4.68 yards per carry (#10-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Eagles have ranked #13 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 222 yards per game through the air against them (#12 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #16 with 4.52 yards per carry. Philadelphia has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 124 yards per game (#2-best). Philadelphia has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 61 yards per game (#2-worst).

Philadelphia Eagles Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Jalen Hurts to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (34.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.3% in games he has played).

  • A.J. Brown has accrued a colossal 97.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among wide receivers.

  • The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.25 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.

Washington Football Team Insights

  • The weather report calls for light rain in this game... which typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

  • The Washington Commanders defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • The Washington Commanders have utilized play action on 34.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Betting Trends

  • The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.65 Units / 30% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.05 Units / 16% ROI)

  • Zach Pascal has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)