Philadelphia Eagles vs Indianapolis Colts Matchup Preview - November 20th, 2022

Editor

The Indianapolis Colts come in as 6.5 point home underdog as they play the Philadelphia Eagles at Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 3 in 2018. That game resulted in a road win for the Eagles with a final score of 20-16.

Indianapolis's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 328 yards per game -- #6-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their run defense, which has held opposing ground attacks to the #4-least yards per game: 4.11. To give credit where credit is due, their pass defense has also been terrific, checking in at #10 in yards per target (7.42). Indianapolis gets full marks because they haven't even sold out to stop the run the way many teams do. They've played with the standard seven men in the box 13.1% of the time this year. While many teams bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage to stop the run, the Colts have employed this tactic the #8-least in football. This Colts run defense has been anchored by their defensive tackles, who grade out as the #2-best unit in the NFL. This presents a decided advantage for Indianapolis given that the Eagles have had so little success running the ball this year, managing a mere 4.68 yards per carry (#24-worst in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Colts check in at #13 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 257 yards per game (#8 in football). Their run game has ranked #26 with 3.96 yards per attempt on the ground.

Philadelphia's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #9 in the league with 4.68 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Philadelphia's o-line ranks #6-best in this regard. With how successful they've been on the ground, this has opened up opportunities through the air as well; Philadelphia has averaged 7.95 yards per target, which ranks them #4 in football. In terms of their defense, the Eagles have ranked #10 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 214 yards per game through the air against them (#10 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #18 with 4.72 yards per carry. Philadelphia has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 58.4% completion rate (#1-lowest). Positionally, perhaps their worst defensive asset has been their safeties, which rank just #25 in the league in locking down route-runners.

Philadelphia Eagles Insights

  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

  • A.J. Brown has posted far fewer air yards this season (91.0 per game) than he did last season (97.0 per game).

  • The Philadelphia Eagles have used play action on 33.8% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Indianapolis Colts Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Deon Jackson to be a less important option in his offense's run game this week (8.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.1% in games he has played).

  • The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends rank as the best collection of DEs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

  • The Sharp Model projects Jonathan Taylor to run for 0.56 touchdowns in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.

Betting Trends

  • The Indianapolis Colts have scored last in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 25% ROI)

  • Miles Sanders has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.10 Units / 33% ROI)