Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys Matchup Preview - December 24th, 2022
Saturday the Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) will battle the Dallas Cowboys (10-4). Oddsmakers peg the Cowboys as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 64%, leaving the Eagles with a 36% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Cowboys -4.0 with a Game Total of 48.0.
Dallas's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #8 in football at 4.75 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. To that point, Dallas's line ranks #9-best in the league in run blocking. What makes the Cowboys run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 13.3% of the time, the #8-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Dallas hasn't been thwarted. When it comes to their defense, the Cowboys check in at #11 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 215 yards per game against Dallas this year (#8 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #14 against them with 4.55 yards per ground attempt. This Cowboys defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 25 yards per game (#3-best in the league). Dallas's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have caught 85.8% of their passes (#5-highest in the league).
Philadelphia's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #5 in the league while allowing just 327 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #4-least yards per game: 210. They've made it a habit of getting to the quarterback quickly, averaging just 2.4 seconds after the snap before applying pressure -- #7-quickest in the league. The Eagles have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 59.6% completion rate (#1-lowest). Philadelphia's best position group in coverage has been their cornerbacks, which rank #2 in the league in locking down route-runners. Philadelphia's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive ends, which check in as the #1-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Eagles have ranked #16 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 238 yards per game (#18 in football). On the ground they've ranked #5 with 4.85 yards per carry.
Philadelphia Eagles Insights
The Philadelphia Eagles will be forced to start backup QB Gardner Minshew in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.51 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the league.
Dallas Cowboys Insights
The Sharp Model projects Dak Prescott to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (12.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.4% in games he has played).
Dak Prescott has thrown for quite a few less yards per game (232.0) this year than he did last year (288.0).
The Dallas Cowboys have gone no-huddle on 12.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
Betting Trends
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 38% ROI)
The Philadelphia Eagles have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
Tony Pollard has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.75 Units / 51% ROI)